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1999 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary

Design of a System Dynamics Model for Problems in a Remote, Depopulated Rural Community

Research Project

Project/Area Number 09610195
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field 社会学(含社会福祉関係)
Research InstitutionHokkaido Tokai University

Principal Investigator

HARA Toshihiko  Hokkaido Tokai University, Faculity of International Cultural Relations, Professor, 国際文化学部, 教授 (00208654)

Project Period (FY) 1997 – 1999
KeywordsDepopulation / Population Movement / Local Population / Simulation / System Dynamics / Community Social Welfare / Aging / Birth Rate Decline
Research Abstract

The purpose of this study is to design a theoretical model for sociocultural and economic problem observed in the depopulation process. Using the system dynamics approach and its new software (Stella Research 5.1.1.J. Version), we developed the model, which are composed of some sectors like population, the industry-employment , social welfare, education, retail shops and community budget.
And we simulated :
(1) the effects of changing (a) product demand, (b) product price, c material price and (d) standard wage outside of the community, on the industrial performance and the migration of labor force in different scenarios,
(2) the impacts of out-migration on social welfare, education, retail shops and community budget,
(3)the impacts of social welfare, education, retail shops and community budget in a remote, depopulated rural community, on its out-migration and employers' age structure.
(4)the Possible Effects of Political Intervention in Future Developments of Depopulated Rural Community.

  • Research Products

    (7 results)

All Other

All Publications (7 results)

  • [Publications] Toshihiko HARA: "Impacts of Out-migration on Social Welfare, Education, Retail Shops and Community Budget; Design of a System Dynamics Model for Problems in a Remote, Depopulated Rural Community: Part III"Hokkaido Tokai University Humanities & Social Sciences, Hokkaido Tokai Univ., Sappro. 9. 1-17 (1997)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
  • [Publications] Toshihiko HARA: "Impacts of Social Welfare, Education, Retail Shops and Community Budget, On Out-migration; Design of a System Dynamics Model for Problems in a Remote, Depopulated Rural Community: Part IV"Hokkaido Tokai University Humanities & Social Sciences, Hokkaido Tokai Univ., Sappro. 10. 57-78 (1998)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
  • [Publications] Toshihiko HARA: "Economic Trends and Local Population Movement -Hokkaido in Recession"Statistics, Japan Statistical Association. 10. 1-6 (1998)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
  • [Publications] Toshihiko HARA: "Practice in Local Population Projection, Materials for Lectures on Basic Population Problem"Research Association for Population Problems. 2. 135-144 (1998)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
  • [Publications] Toshihiko HARA: "the Meaning of Decentralization Promotion Plan for Local Community"Hokkaido Self-government, Daiichhoki-Syuppan. 11. 4-17 (1998)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
  • [Publications] Toshihiko HARA: "Birth Rate Decline in Hokkaido"Statistics, Japan Statistical Association. 3. 16-21 (2000)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より
  • [Publications] Toshihiko HARA: "Consideration of the Possible Effects of Political Intervention in Future Developments of Depopulated Rural Community; Design of a System Dynamics Model for Problems in a Remote, Depopulated Rural Community: Part V"Hokkaido Tokai University Humanities & Social Sciences ,Hokkaido Tokai Univ., Sappro. 13. 25-45 (2000)

    • Description
      「研究成果報告書概要(欧文)」より

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Published: 2001-10-23  

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