1998 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
An Analysis of Economic Effects of Public Investment to Regional Economy
| Project/Area Number |
09630046
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
経済政策(含経済事情)
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| Research Institution | KYUSHU UNIVERSITY |
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Principal Investigator |
SAEKI Chikayoshi Kyushu University, Faculty of Economics, Professor, 経済学部, 教授 (70136589)
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| Project Period (FY) |
1997 – 1998
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| Keywords | Regional Economy / Public Investment / Econometric Model / Simulation / Business Cycle Index / Database of Regional Economy / Multiplier / Japanese Economy |
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| Research Abstract |
In this research I have focused on the economic effects of public inversment to regional Economy. Firstly I have developed the economic data base of Kysushu and Fukuoka area (though it included some data of Asian countried) for the Regional econometric model. This database have the macro economic data such as income, expenditure and production by industrial sectors and also have the number of population of the area, private capital stock, public capital stocks etc. It is not so easy to maintain the database, because almost all the macro data have revised through all the periods. The latest data are that of 1997. In this database, I have tried to maintain to the latest resource. Depending on these database, A regional (Fukuoka area) model have developed, which has 7 economic blocks, (1) Expenditure (nominal and real base), (2)Price and deflater, (3) Production by industries, (4) Labour, (5) Income distribution, (6) Population and (7) Other sectors. This model is link ed to the Japanese economy by GDP etc. The public investment in Japan effects the Japanese economy and this effects to the Fukuoka area by this channel. Within the area, the regional public investment have effect on the reginal economy. In the recent years, the Japanese economy has been in the depression and these bad economic conditions greatly effect to the reginal economy. Therefore for the simulation analysis, we should consider these conditions but the available data are until 1996 or 1997. So the results of my study is quite restricted. In the simulation, I tried to forecast the economic features till 2010 and estimate the multiplies o f public investment in this area. My tentative results show the effects have declined after mid of 1990th. I will tried to revise the model considering the change of economic systems and check these tentative results.
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