| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
KAKO Toshiyuki Kobe Univ.Fac. of Ag.Professor, 農学部, 教授 (00121533)
INAMOTO Shiro Kyoto Univ.Fac. of Ag.Professor, 農学部, 教授 (80026468)
TSUNO Yukindo Tottori Univ.Prof. Emeritus, 名誉教授 (00036287)
KASAHARA Kouzou Tottori Univ.Fac. of Ag.Prof., 農学部, 教授 (60135837)
YAMAJI Eiji Kyoto Univ.Fac. of Ag.Professor, 農学部, 教授 (10143405)
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| Research Abstract |
This study was originally started in 1991 funded by the Ministry of Education focusing on japonica rice production in the U.S.Since then, except for the fiscal year 1994, this research was continuously funded and conducted until March 2001 with an expansion in research areas.
World japonica rice market prices dropped substantially during the last 3 years from US$450 per metric ton of milled rice, US No. 1, to US$300 by March 2001. This sharp drop occurred during the last one year, in particular. Relatively high prices in the mid-1990's caused record production of total rice in the world consecutively from 1993 to 1999, reaching 400 million tons. Japonica rice market prices remained at a higher level much longer than the indica rice, but they finally dropped since the fall in 2000. Japanese rice imports certainly helped keep japonica rice prices relatively higher than indica rice.
Production potential of japonica rice is observed in many areas in the world. In Heilongjiang Province in Chi
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na, japonica rice production increased dramatically even during a period of low market prices. The increasing speed has been slowed down ; however, the current nearly 2 million hectares of japonica rice areas could be expanded even further more in the future.
The 1996 Farm Bill (FAIR) in the U.S.has been influencing rice production in the country. If the climate is appropriate and the market prices are high enough, any State can produce rice taking the advantage of "freedom to grow" policies of the Bill. In California, the Delta area, which was not considered to be a rice area, is now a good candidate for japonica rice. A GIS study in this project indicated that the Great Plains states can be a good suitable area for japonica rice production.
Former Soviet countries such as Russia and Ukraine are another potential areas for increase in japonica rice production. Southern part of Brazil, Uruguay, northern part of Argentina and Paraguay keep an enormous amount of potential increase in japonica rice production. The West Africa and Madagascar are also the area for a potential increase in production.
Because of these tremendous potential increase in japonica rice production, the producers in the world can meet an increase in demand rather easily indicating that world market prices would not increase much in the future. Demand for japonica rice, by the way, may increase substantially worldwide due to the sushi-boom, which began in the U.S.several years ago and now spreading all over the world. This may render Asian eating habit to penetrate into the non-Asian areas together with BSE problems in Europe. Accordingly, this may lead to more rice consumption in the world for the future. At the same time, development for feed use of rice may be important to keep up with the fast expansion of production. Less
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