2000 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
Comparative Econometric Analysis of Growth and Currency Stability in the EMU and APEC Countries
| Project/Area Number |
10430005
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B).
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Economic statistics
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| Research Institution | Nagoya University (2000)
Niigata University (1998-1999) |
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Principal Investigator |
WAGO Hajime Nagoya University, Graduate School of Economics, Professor, 大学院・経済学研究科, 教授 (00091934)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
KANOH Satoru Hitotsubashi University, Institute of Economic Research, Professor, 経済研究所, 教授 (50114971)
ASAKO Kazumi Hitotsubashi University, Institute of Economic Research, Professor, 経済研究所, 教授 (60134194)
FUKAO Mitsuhiro Keio University, Department of Commerce, Professor, 商学部, 教授 (30296743)
FUKUDA Shinichi University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics, Associate Professor, 大学院・経済学研究科, 助教授 (00221531)
KUNITOMO Naoto University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics, Professor, 大学院・経済学研究科, 教授 (10153313)
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| Project Period (FY) |
1998 – 2000
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| Keywords | Asian Economic Growth / Asian Currency Crisis / Linkage of Currency and Stock Price / Volatility model / Assymetry in variance model / Volatility change in exchange rate / Asian Economic Growth / International Currency System |
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| Research Abstract |
The Asian financial crisis in 1997 had different aspects from the crisis experienced by developing countries in the past and might well be called the crisis of new century. Compared with the past, the macro economic indicators in Asian countries showed the following characteristics ; (1) the saving and the investment ratios to GDP were both high ; (2) the financial balance of payments showed surplus in most countries ; (3) the inflation rates stayed relatively low. The foreign exchange markets in those countries were pegged to the currency baskets in which dollar had large weight. Because of this, Asian countries lost competitiveness when yen depreciated against dollar in 1995.
The objective of this research was in the first place to analyze quantitatively the short term and long term effects of the movements of the primary currency on the macro economic conditions such as economic growth in the EMU.Second, based on the results, the currency policies of the APEC countries in the 21st ce
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ntury were explored both theoretically and empirically. Third, the influences of currency fluctuations on economic growth in APEC countries were investigated and comparisons were made with EMU countries.
It is often claimed that large fluctuations of an exchange rate cause serious problems in the economy. However, the detail of its mechanism is not obvious. This research investigated the functions of the international currency system by studying the introduction of EURO and the Asian currency crisis. Further, an econometric model to explain the relationship between the currency and the economic growth was constructed and the impacts of various economic policies were numerically evaluated. At the same time, some econometric methodologies were proposed to analyze the currency market empirically. The final report includes 21 research papers that were presented at the annual meeting of the Japan Statistical Society, the international symposium of the ISI and four research symposia for our project. Less
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Research Products
(24 results)
