2000 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
An Economic Analysis of Declining Fertility
| Project/Area Number |
10430009
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B).
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
経済政策(含経済事情)
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| Research Institution | Hitotsubashi University |
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Principal Investigator |
TAKAYAMA Noriyuki Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi Univ., Professor, 経済研究所, 教授 (30102940)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
OGAWA Hiroshi Department of Economics, Kanto-gakuen Univ., Associate Professor, 経済学部, 助教授 (00245135)
ASO Yoshibumi Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi Univ., Associate Professor, 経済研究所, 助教授 (70212511)
UNO Fumiko Department of Social Science, Toyo-eiwa Women's Univ., Professor, 社会科学部, 教授 (20017669)
YOSHIDA Hiroshi Department of Economics, Tohoku Univ., Associate Professor, 経済学部, 助教授 (60275823)
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| Project Period (FY) |
1998 – 2000
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| Keywords | Declining Population / Total Fertility Rate / Opportunity Cost for Child-raising / Established Sex Roles between Men and Women / Excess-Supply Economy / Behavior of Marriage / Customary Working Practice / Reconciling Market Work and Child-raising |
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| Research Abstract |
1. There are mainly three reasons for declining fertility in recent Japan : (1) increases in opportunity costs for child-raising, (2) the established sex roles of men and women, and (3) increasing economic rationale for having no-kids from individualistic point of view.
2. A society of declining fertility will suffer from an excess-supply economy, which may make a sharp contrast with a society of aging populations under an excess-demand economy.
3. Declining fertility used to be a problem of quantity. It turns out, however, to be a problem of quality, as well. Declining children in number will cause less competition among them, leading to lower quality of children.
4. Some people advocate to increase labor force participation of females along with later retirement against a declining population in Japan. It will turn out, however, that such a policy would not cancel out declining populations fully in the 21st century. Continuous and massive imports of foreign guest workers will be required, then.
5. It is necessary to change customary working practice of Japanese males for the declining fertility to return to a higher level. It is usually quite abnormal in that working males have little time to spare for home responsibilities. The practice has been intensifying the established sex roles of men and women, forcing them unable to reconcile market work and home work.
6. It is necessary to have different work incentives for Japanese males to change their working practice. Salaries have to be based not on the length of working hours but on the working output. Promotions have to be based not on senioritis but on the competence. Overtime pay should be increased considerably.
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