2000 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
Development of Unified Demand Forecast Models for National Land-use Planning
| Project/Area Number |
10450186
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B).
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
交通工学・国土計画
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| Research Institution | TOHOKU UNIVERSITY |
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Principal Investigator |
MORISUGI Hisayoshi Guraduate School of Information Sciences, Tohoku University, Professor, 大学院・情報科学研究科, 教授 (80026161)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
UEDA Takayuki Faculty of Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Associat Professor, 工学部, 助教授 (20232754)
HAYASHIYAMA Yasuhisa Guraduate School of Economics, Tohoku University, Associate Professor, 大学院・経済学研究科, 助教授 (20260531)
TOKUNAGA Yoshiyuki Guraduate School of Information Sciences, Tohoku University, Associate Professor, 大学院・情報科学研究科, 助教授 (40180137)
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| Project Period (FY) |
1998 – 2000
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| Keywords | Demand Forecast / national landuse Plan / Microeconomics / Benefit Evaluation / Value of Time / Existing Value / Behavioral Modeling / Transportation |
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| Research Abstract |
This study aims to develop a set of practical demand forecast models based on a unified micro-economic behavioral principle so that it is possible to estimate associated benefits by using the developed behavioral models. The study results can be summarized as follows :
(1) The consumption of various goods and services such as transportation and shopping, etc., requires time. Therefore, it needs to know the characteristics of the value of time. By making a simple consumer model, this study succeeded in the sensitivity analysis to show the influences of charge in price level, required time, total available time and income level on the value of time. This point has not been succeeded by the previous literature.
(2) In order to apply the theory mentioned above to the practical transportation forecast, it is necessary to change the conventional method which forecasts given the value of time, to the method which is able to simultaneously forecast the demand and value of time. This study propos
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ed such a practical simultaneous forecast method by adopting CES utility function and showed its practicability.
(3) By surveying present practical urban land-use models over the world, this study proposed a basic framework for the practical models on the micro-economic foundations, functional forms and assumptions and a pply this framework to theoretically express the reasons why the various results come from the various models.
(4) It is said that theoretically there are not only a use value but also an existing value for any element of environment. This study showed that by adopting an appropriate utility functional form and derive its demand functions, it is possible to estimate amounts and their shares of the use value and the existing value for any element of environment by observing people's behaviours.
(5) This study proposed an manual for emerment physical distribution plan and its usefulness and practicability. Specifically it suggests that it is important to maintain the speed of transportation by imposing some regulations in order to simultaneouslv achieve the minimization of total time and the longest time. Less
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