2002 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
Optimal stochastic control modeling for sustainable agricultural and forest resource management and optimal landscape management
| Project/Area Number |
11660155
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
林学
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| Research Institution | INSTITUTE OF STATISTICAL MATHEMATICS (2000-2002)
University of Miyazaki (1999) |
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Principal Investigator |
YOSHIMOTO Atsushi Inst. of Statistical Mathematics, Dept. of Stat. Methodology, Associate Professor, 調査実験解析研究系, 助教授 (10264350)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
YUKUTAKE Kiyoshi Miyazaki Univ., Faculty of Agriculture, Professor, 農学部, 教授 (30174832)
SHOJI Isao Tsukuba Univ, Inst. of Policy & Planning Sciences, Professor, 第三学類, 教授 (20282329)
OZAKI Tohru Inst. of Statistical Mathematics, Dept. of Prediction and Control, Professor, 予測制御研究系, 教授 (00000208)
YOSHIMOTO Yoko UFJ Research Institute, Senior Researcher, 総合研究所・経済・社会政策部, 主任研究員
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| Project Period (FY) |
1999 – 2002
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| Keywords | Forest Economics / Forest Ecology / Forest Biometrics / Land Use Policy / Statistics / Biodiversity / Landscaoe Management / Stochastic Modeling |
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| Research Abstract |
The objective of this research was to analyze the sustainable management of agricultural and forest resources under uncertain environments from the economic point of view toward the optimal landscape management. The research was conducted from two approaches. One is a mathematical modeling approach and the other is a survey based approach. The overview of the research is as follows ;
1. A stochastic control model was constructed for seeking a minimum threshold price line to maintain forest stand management. Our analysis shows that a minimum threshold price level is affectejd by the target forest stand growth.
2. A nonparametric method for diffusion processes was proposed. The proposed approach has the following merits : 1 avoid estimating all the coefficients of a polynomial function locally or globally, 2 : no kernel functions and no bandwidth selection associated with them were required, and 3 : prediction, filtering, and smoothing of states of interest can be easily conducted.
3. Time series analysis was conducted on log price dynamics. The results showed that a peak of seasonaliry appeared in October recently. It was also shown that the degree of seasonality was severer for log price than lumber price.
4. A feasibility study was conducted on sugi dried lumber production. It was shown that in order to seek the sustainable production not only an efficient production system but also a wide variety of products should be constructed.
5. Classification of forest owners' management styles has been analyzed based on the hearing survey. The management style was shown to be categorized into 1. the pleasure-seeking management, by which the owners enjoy and perform communication through forest management, 2. the income-priented management, 3. the large-scale asset holding management, and 4. the abandoning management, where the owners cease forestry practices.
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