| Research Abstract |
The control of global warming and the conversion to the environmental consideration type society are the most urgent and important target in today's environmental issue. A development a model which projects and assesses effectivenes of environmental technology developments, various countermeasures including social/economic institutional changes is a pressing need in order to design and propose post global warming society.
In this research, we put a focus on modeling of social economic system, its energy and material consumption, and consequent carbon dioxide emission in global scale. The developed model is a couple of 1) a bottom-up end-use energy model, and 2) a top-down type general equilibrium economic model.
We applied these models to a long-term world CO2 emission projection and its ontrol. Three cases were analyzed. They are 1) in case of 550ppm CO2 concentration target, 2) doing a severe emission control with the early stage, and 3) emission control loose first and tightened later. Moreover, we applied the model for Asian region until 2032. The projected emissions in 2032 are 1.7-4.9 times of 1998 emission, corresponding to the severity of countermeasures and socio-economic scenarios.
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