2002 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
Japanese Economy in the 21st Century: Simulations by Applied General Equilibrium Analysis
| Project/Area Number |
12630110
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Public finance/Monetary economics
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| Research Institution | Seijo University |
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Principal Investigator |
KODAIRA Hiroshi Professor, Department of Economics, Seijo University, 経済学部, 教授 (00125379)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2000 – 2002
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| Keywords | Applied General Equilibrium / Over Lapping Generation Model / Social Accounting Matrix / 日本経済の再生 |
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| Research Abstract |
The Japanese economy is now undergoing changes both in substance and in spirit. What should the government do toward a self-sustained growth? The answer is an economic structural reform. The structural switch is unavoidable and seems a most promising policy measure to move the Japanese economy into an autonomous growth process. AGE (applied general equilibrium) analysis is the most suitable tool to evaluate such policy packages, which tells not only the "direction" but also the "magnitude" of changes in prices, allocation and income distribution caused by policies. Our purpose here is the quantitative evaluation of various policy scenarios.
To carry out AGE analysis, four tasks are necessary; (1) the building of theoretical model, (2) the examination of policy issues, (3) the study of programming, and (4) the construction of base equilibrium data set. For (1) and (2), we built a model based on Negishi expression, after studying the reasons and causes of prolonged Heisei stagnation, the effects on savings behavior by population a_ging. For (3), we practiced the programming by Mathematica and GAMS. For (4), our initial plan to construct the 1995 data set as the base year was suspended, because the necessity to construct it in SAM (social accounting matrix) form.
The remaining are to finish SAM and to proceed simulation analyses for urgency policy matters.
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