2002 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
Study on statistical theory of carsinogenesis model and its application to data in radiation epidemiology
| Project/Area Number |
12680317
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Statistical science
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| Research Institution | Japanese Foundation for Cancer Research (2002)
Hiroshima University (2000-2001) |
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Principal Investigator |
MATSUURA Masaaki Japanese Foundation for Cancer Research, Cancer Institute, Chief Researcher, 癌研究所・物理部, 主任研究員 (40173794)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
KAI Michiaki Oita University of Nursing and Health Sciences, Health Sciences, Professor, 人間科学講座, 教授 (10185697)
HAYAKAWA Norihiko Hiroshima University, Research Institute for Radiation Biology and Medicine, Professor, 原爆放射線医科学研究所, 教授 (40022834)
OHTAKI Megu Hiroshima University, Research Institute for Radiation Biology and Medicine, Professor, 原爆放射線医科学研究所, 教授 (20110463)
MINE Mariko Nagasaki University" School of Medicine, Atomic Bomb Disease Institute, 医学部, 助教授 (00108292)
EGUCHI Shinto Institute of Statistical Mathematics Dept. Fundamental Statistical Theory, Professor, 統計基礎研究系, 教授 (10168776)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2000 – 2002
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| Keywords | cancer / mathematical model / radiation / atomic bomb survivors / epidemiology / mortality / carcinogenesis model / data analysis |
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| Research Abstract |
The purpose of this study is to develop a statistical methodology for clarifying the mechanism of carsinogenesis induced by radiation. We used the mortality among atomic bomb survivors followed-up by Research Institute for Radiation Biology and Medicine, Hiroshima University and investigated the results from the radiation-epidemiological and radiation'biological point of view. In 2000, as one of the genetic instability model we proposed a protract effect model for radiation exposure based on the two-mutation clonal expansion model developed by Dr. Moolgavkar. In the protract model, changes of stem cell during a certain period after the exposure was considered. We visited Dr. Moolgavkar (FHCRC, USA) and he reviewed our study. Results for cancers of lung, stomach and colon were presented in the International Workshop on Mathematical Modeling in Carcinogenesis (Kyoto). In 2001, we reconsidered mathematical specification for the sporadic effect of the carcinogenesis model and discussed this problem with Dr. Moolgavkar again. In 2002, we analyzed the dose response curve for radiation and its possible threshold. We found a hockey-stick type curve in male lung cancer and a relatively high risk in low dose range in female lung cancer. When we combined these two heterogeneous curves, a linear dose response were appeared in lung cancer. We presented epidemiological findings in The XVI IEA World Congress ofEpidemiology (Montreal, Canada) and published a paper in the journal.
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