2001 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
System Analysis of Complex Features of Socio-Economic Structure based on the Complex Theory and its Application to the Risk Analysis
| Project/Area Number |
12680445
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
社会システム工学
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| Research Institution | KYUSHU UNIVERSITY |
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Principal Investigator |
TOKINAGA Shozo Graduate School of Economics, Kyushu University, Professor, 大学院・経済学研究院, 教授 (30124134)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
FURUKAWA Tetsuya Graduate School of Economics, Kyushu University, Associate Professor, 大学院・経済学研究院, 助教授 (00209165)
NAKAI Wataru Graduate School of Economics, Kyushu University, Professor, 大学院・経済学研究院, 教授 (20145808)
IWAMOTO Seiichi Graduate School of Economics, Kyushu University, Professor, 大学院・経済学研究院, 教授 (90037284)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2000 – 2001
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| Keywords | Complex system / Risk analysis / Dynamical system / Optimization / Fuzzy inference / Fractal theory / Chaos / Uncertainty |
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| Research Abstract |
The project treated the analysis of complex feature of the socio-economic dynamics and its application to the risk analysis based on the complex theory. As the result of project three purposed of the project was realized, namely, 1) risk analysis and risk management of complex socio-econoinic dynamic, 2) observation of system performance based on the complex theory and the analysis of self-organization structure, 3) macro-economic formulation for the system dynamics and the application of the complex theory to the prediction and control. The basic approach of the project was the formulation of the socio-economic dynamics based on the concept of self-organizing system which has original mathematically descriptive structure, and the application of theories of uncertainty such as the GA, the fuzzy inference system, and the fractal and chaos theory. The multi-stage fuzzy inference system was used to describe the inference in a linguistic manner, and it was applied to the optimization of dy
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namical system. Moreover, many examples of the risk management and decision making in the Japanese firms in the dynamical environment were summarized as a database, and also many example for the public economics. A novel method was proposed for the improvement of the fuzzy inference system used for the clustering of a large sized observation. As a typical application for the planning problem under uncertainty, the network-based structure for the macro-economics model was proposed, and the problem was solved by using our works in the project in the complex theory and the optimization of system dynamics.
In these field, many corporate works were carried out among the members of the project as well as related researchers in Japanese and foreign countries. The result of the project was published in the form of papers in several academic societies such as the Operations Research Society of Japan, the Information Processing Society of Japan, the Institute of Electronics, Information and Comiminication Engineering, Japan. Less
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