2002 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
The Study on the Relationship between the Concept of Causation and that of Probability in Modern Philosophy
| Project/Area Number |
13610011
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Philosophy
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| Research Institution | Osaka City University |
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Principal Investigator |
NAKASAI Toshiro Osaka City University, Graduate School of Literature and Human Sciences, Professor, 大学院・文学研究科, 教授 (20137178)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2001 – 2002
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| Keywords | probability / causation / laws of nature / necessity |
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| Research Abstract |
The aim of this study is to articulate the relationship between the concept of causation and that of probability in modern philosophy for the period of two years. It has also as its theme an attempt to elucidate the role which the concept of probability plays in the contemporary epistemology. During the first period of this study (2001-2002), I tried to discover the significance of causal and probabilistic thinking in the history of philosophy and science, and thereby to see Hume's theory of causation in a new light, especially in its relation to the theory of probability. The answers to Hume given by Thomas. Reid and Immanuel Kant are also examined. They are concerned with the problems of causal powers and causal laws. In the next period (2002-2003), I considered the contemporary theories of causation in quite varied contexts from the sigularist theories, conditional analysis of causation to the possibility of backwards causation. Then I began to examine the various attempt to propose a plausible explication of the concept of causation in terms of probability and necessity from Michael Tooley's causal realism to Van Fraassen's antirealist argument about the laws of nature. Finally, I found the theory of causal processes proposed by Wesley Salmon to be more promising than any other rivals. I agree that causes and effects are connected by a set of causal processes and interactions, but I think that this is not the connection that Hume tried to find in vain. The theory of causal processes is imperfect until the problem of identity over time is satisfactorily solved.
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Research Products
(2 results)
