A Study on Risk Evaluation Caused by Delay of Infrastructure Development Projects

2003 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary

• Project/Area Number: 14350275
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: 交通工学・国土計画
• Research Institution: The University of Tokyo
• Principal Investigator: MORICHI Shigeru The University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Engineering, Professor, 大学院・工学系研究科, 教授 (40016473)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): SHIMIZU Tetsuo The University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Engineering, Associate Professor, 大学院・工学系研究科, 助教授 (40272679) ; TSUTSUMI Morito University of Tsukuba, Institute of Policy and Planning Sciences, Associate Professor, 社会工学系, 助教授 (70292886)
• Project Period (FY): 2002 – 2003
• Keywords: Schedule Management / Project Evaluation / Risk of Delay / Uncertainty

Research Abstract

The methodology of effective investment for infrastructure development is required due to the limitation of current and future amount of budget for infrastructure developments. This study analyzes 1)the optimal timing for providing infrastructure in order to increase the social welfare, 2)the effect of investment by the new idea of development procedure such as two-step development considering the increase of demand, and 3)the effect of two-step development and cancellation of development according to the current re-evaluation framework by Japanese government considering the irreversible property of infrastructure development in which sank cost cannot be collected, in case of single infrastructure development on the assumption that future benefit will be uncertain.