2003 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
Modeling effects of subjective probability expressions on decision making
| Project/Area Number |
14510093
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
実験系心理学
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| Research Institution | TOKYO INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY |
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Principal Investigator |
YAMAGISHI Kimihiko TOKYO INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, Graduate School of Decision Science of Technology, Associate Professor, 大学院・社会理工学研究科, 助教授 (70286136)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
NAKAGAWA Masanori TOKYO INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, Graduate School of Decision Science of Technology, Professor, 大学院・社会理工学研究科, 教授 (40155685)
MUTA Hiromitsu TOKYO INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, Graduate School of Decision Science of Technology, Professor, 大学院・社会理工学研究科, 教授 (70090925)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2002 – 2003
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| Keywords | Probability / Decision Making / Neural Networks |
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| Research Abstract |
The directionality of verbal uncertainty expressions, or verbal probabilities, was investigated. A "positive" directionality draws the focus of communication toward the prospect that an uncertain event may materialize in the future. Conversely, a "negative" directionality draws the focus more toward expecting that an uncertain event may not materialize. Our experiments confirmed the existence of directionality in Japanese terms of uncertainty. Moreover, in out study of binary choice between gambles with verbal probabilities, we found a new kind of preference reversal phenomenon. Explanatory models were developed.
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