2004 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
Prediction of strong ground motion pattern for the Nankai and Tonankai earthquake based on high-resokution 3D large scale numerical simulation.
| Project/Area Number |
14540391
|
|---|
| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
|
| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
|---|
| Section | 一般 |
|---|
| Research Field |
固体地球物理学
|
|---|
| Research Institution | The University of Tokyo |
|---|
Principal Investigator |
FURUMURA Takashi The University of Tokyo, Earthquake Research Institute, Associate Professor, 地震研究所, 助教授 (80241404)
|
|---|
| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
YAMANAKA Yoshiko The University of Tokyo, Earthquake Research Institute, Research Associate, 地震研究所, 助手 (30262083)
KOKETSU Kazuki The University of Tokyo, Earthquake Research Institute, Professor, 地震研究所, 教授 (90134634)
|
|---|
| Project Period (FY) |
2002 – 2004
|
| Keywords | Tonankai Earthquake / Nankai Earthquake / Strong Ground Motions / Numerical Simulator / Earth simulator |
|---|
| Research Abstract |
In order to evaluate the pattern of strong ground motions expecting fur future Tonankai and Nankai earthquake, we first conducted computer simulations of strong ground motions associated with recent damaging earthquakes in Japan ; such as the Kii-hanto-oki earthquake(Mw7.3) in 2004, and the Niigata-ken Chuetsu earthquake(Mw6.8) in 2004 and compared the simulation results with dense array observations.
Through comparison with observations, the accuracy of the simulation model was confirmed. Thus, the model is considered to be suitable for predicting the strong ground motions for future earthquake scenarios such as events in the Nankai Trough. Historical documentation indicates that M8 earthquakes have occurred repeatedly along these subduction zones, at relatively uniform intervals of about 100 years, suggesting that the next series of M8 earthquakes should occur within 30-40 years. The simulation results warn the development of large intensity along the source region and large and lengthy ground motions in population centers, with relatively longer predominant period about 3 to 6s(Osaka and Nagoya) and 6 to 10s(Tokyo). Such long-period motions would be most damaging for recent, man-made constructions such as very tall buildings, long bridges, and large oil reservation tanks.
Using the detail subsurface structural model and high-performance computer, such as the Earth Simulator supercomputer have made it possible to perform realistic simulations of high-frequency seismic wave propagation on a regional scale. Such high-resolution and high-performance systems made it possible to conduct a comprehensive study on seismic wave propagation and strong ground motions for the past and future large earthquakes.
|
