| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
FUKUSHIMA Takehiko University of Hiroshima, Faculty of Engineering, Professor, 工学部, 教授 (90124354)
TANAKA Kenji KYOTO UNIVERSITY, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Research Associate, 防災研究所, 助手 (30283625)
TOMOSUGI Kunio KYOTO UNIVERSITY, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Associate Professor, 防災研究所, 助教授 (50027265)
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| Research Abstract |
In this research, the world water simulation model is proposed to grasp the dynamical interrelationship between the socio-economic activities concerning the water demand and the water supply in the world using System Dynamics concepts. Moreover, the regional interconnection is considered to identify the gap of each region. In the proposed model, socio-economic-activities consist of several sectors, such as population, capita, agriculture, nonrenewable resource, persistent pollution, water quantity and water quality. Spatially, the model is divided into six continental regions, such as Africa, Asia, Australia, Europe, North America and South America. Some future trends in the 21st century of all continents under the standard run are summarized.
Africa: Extensive water deficiency does not occur. However, living conditions such as food production and industrial output get into the collapse level due to the depletion of nonrenewable resources.
Asia: Extensive water deficiency occurs from aro
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und 2015. After getting to the peak of 5 billion people around 2020, it is assumed to start to decrease up to 2 billion in 2100. Water deficiency and nonrenewable resources decrease, industrial output is decreasing gradually from around 2020.
Australia: Although water deficiency does not occur during this century, industrial output is assumed to collapse due to the nonrenewable resources depletion. Food production is kept to be sustainable level.
Europe: The balance between water supply and water demand is equipoise, though there is no water deficiency through the entire run. The population growth is likely stabilized from 2000.
North America: Extensive water deficiency occurs from around 2030. As well as in Europe, the living condition is expected to reach at the limit of the sustainable level in the end of this century.
South America: There are sufficient water resources through the entire run. However, same as in Africa, living conditions is expected to reach at the collapse level due to the depletion of nonrenewable resources. Less
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