2014 Fiscal Year Annual Research Report
労働生産性と人間の移動性に関する確率過程模型と複雑系ネットワーク研究
| Project/Area Number |
14F04708
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| Research Institution | Kyoto University |
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Principal Investigator |
青山 秀明 京都大学, 理学(系)研究科(研究院), 教授 (40202501)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
LUNGU Eliza 京都大学, 理学(系)研究科(研究院), 外国人特別研究員
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| Project Period (FY) |
2014-04-25 – 2016-03-31
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| Keywords | labour market / mobility network / intragenerational rate / weighted network |
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
For the last 30 years depending on the political, economic situation of the country under study, increase in the rate of the intragenerational occupational mobility was observed. The question that I address here is how the job-to-job movements of workers affect the firm's productivity distribution. In order to answer this question, I focused up to now on understanding why people change their occupations and how much are these decisions affected by the state of the labour market, or by personal characteristic, by using network analysis. The occupations are related to each other via transferable skills, so using social networks we are able to visualize paths of mobility and calculate network indicators.
Using several public databases: REFLEX database for western countries and Japan; HEGESCO database for eastern European countries; Panel Study Income Population (PSID) and Current Population Survey (USA) I constructed occupational mobility network for each country. The networks are constructed considering the occupations as nodes, while the links are weighted with the number of persons experiencing occupation change in that considered time frame.
These networks are sparse, with a low network density; exhibit different structure by gender, most of the flows between occupations are bidirectional, there aren't occupations that disproportionally attract the labour force from the others and in the case of USA, the main network’s characteristics are stable over a long period of time.
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| Current Status of Research Progress |
Current Status of Research Progress
2: Research has progressed on the whole more than it was originally planned.
Reason
The initial goal for the last year has been almost done: the data collection step has finished and also the development/analysis of the occupational mobility networks for different countries. Some delays have been registered because more time was required that initial planned for literature review on labour markets and labour mobility in order to understand the national context for each country understudy and how the macroeconomic indicators influences the labour mobility.
Two working papers are in progress, one on the occupational mobility of the higher education graduates from ex-communist countries vs. the ones from Western countries, before the financial crisis of 2007-2008 and another on the occupational mobility of the US labour force between 1968 and 2010.
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| Strategy for Future Research Activity |
The future work will focus on analysing the empirical productivity distribution across workers/companies/industries and to what extend this can be explained by the labour mobility. Studying the on-going Panel Study Income Population for the USA labour force it has been observed that over the last 30 years the worker mobility across firms/occupations/industries has increased for the entire labour force, disregarding the age group. Nowadays, the high labour mobility is not a characteristics of the newly entrants on the labour force, but rather an "tool" for designing our career path, so it is extremely important to understand the spillovers effects of the human capital movement.
Previous work of Aoyama and others introduced the equilibrium theory of productivity distribution by adapting the equilibrium theory of statistical physics to economics: firms -> energy levels, workers -> molecules, workers’ productivity -> molecules’ energy, aggregate demand -> total energy. This theoretical model manages to explain the empirical productivity distribution of workers across clusters with different productivities, in the case of Japan. I intend to reproduce this study in the case of EU countries, USA and see if similar conclusion may be reached.
The final step will be to quantify the effect of labour mobility over productivity distribution for various countries, taking into account the structure of the labour mobility network and firm/industry characteristics. The research approach will be econometrics and agent based modelling.
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