2005 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
PHILOSOPHICAL STUDIES ON PLAUSIBLE INFERENCE AND SURE INFERENCE
| Project/Area Number |
15320006
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Philosophy/Ethics
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| Research Institution | NANZAN UNIVERSITY |
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Principal Investigator |
HATTORI Hiroyuki NANZAN UNIVERSITY, FACULTY OF HUMANITIES, PROFESSOR, 人文学部, 教授 (40110754)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
MINO Tadashi OSAKA CITY UNIVERSITY, GRADUATE SCHOOL OF LITERATURE AND HUMAN SCIENCES, PROFESSOR, 大学院・文学研究科, 教授 (70181964)
OOSAWA Hidesuke AICHI UNIVERSITY OF EDUCATION, FACULTY OF EDUCATION, PROFESSOR, 教育学部, 教授 (50233094)
YOKOYAMA Teruo NANZAN UNIVERSITY, FACULTY OF HUMANITIES, PROFESSOR, 人文学部, 教授 (80148303)
SHIBATA Masayoshi KANAZAWA UNIVERSITY, FACULTY OF LETTERS, HUMANITIES, PROFESSOR, 文学部, 教授 (20201543)
TODAYAMA Kazuhisa NAGOYA UNIVERSITY, GRADUATE SCHOOL OF INFORMATION SCIENCE, PROFESSOR, 大学院・情報科学研究科, 教授 (90217513)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2003 – 2005
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| Keywords | inductivism / subjective probability / Bayesian inference / Dutch Book argument / anthropic principle / doomsday argument / self sampling assumption / statistical reality |
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| Research Abstract |
The aim of this research is to make clear of what we do in inferring statistically or probabilistically from a few premises from a philosophical point of view. Particularly, we focused Bayesian inference mainly. Our strategy is two-fold. One is to study probabilistic inferences from the standpoint of history of philosophy. The other is to study these from the standpoint of a contemporary philosophy of probability. We studied the Aristotelian chance notion in the context of his teleology. The result of the study is that chance is not incompatible with Aristotle's teleology. In modern times Hume discussed miracles. Therefore we reformulated his argument from a contemporary theory of probability and scrutinized it. Our conclusion is that their arguments are fruitful and suggestive although we have to be careful in formulating their arguments. From the standpoint of a contemporary philosophy of probability, we studied purely theoretical problems and applications of probabilistic inference. We contrasted classical statistics with Bayesian statistics and got the conclusion that Levi's work is still useful and suggestive. It has been claimed that Bayesianism has a serious difficulty in it. However, we showed that we could avoid this difficulty by using the dynamic Monte Carlo method. With respect to applications of probabilistic inference, we studied arguments in which we need the so-called anthropic principle as an assumption, and also we studied doomsday argument. We showed that the structure of these arguments is basically the same as the argument on self-identity. We also showed that the discussion on Zombie hypothesis is closely related with these arguments.
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[Book] 科学哲学の冒険2005
Author(s)
戸田山 和久
Total Pages
294
Publisher
日本放送協会
Description
「研究成果報告書概要(和文)」より
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