2006 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
Economic analysis on carbon sequestration through optimal stochastic control model for forest resources management under uncertain environments.
| Project/Area Number |
15330048
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Applied economics
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| Research Institution | Tohoku University |
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Principal Investigator |
YOSHIMOTO Atsushi Tohoku University, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Associate Professor, 大学院環境科学研究科, 助教授 (10264350)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
YUKUTAKE Kiyoshi University of Miyazaki, Faculty of Agriculture, Professor, 農学部, 教授 (30174832)
SHOJI Isao University of Tsukuba, Graduate School of Systems & Information Engineering, Professor, 大学院システム情報工学研究科, 教授 (20282329)
YANAGIHARA Hirokazu Hiroshima University, Graduate School of Science, Associate Professor, 大学院理学研究科, 助教授 (70342615)
NINOMIYA Yoshiyuki Kyushu University, Graduate School of Mathematics, Assistant Professor, 大学院数理学研究院, 助手 (50343330)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2003 – 2006
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| Keywords | Forest Resource Management / Forest Biometrics / Statistics / Econometrics / Carbon Sequestration / Uncertainty / Mathematical Modeling / Environmental Economics |
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| Research Abstract |
Since the Kyoto Summit in 1997, the corresponding nations started to tackle the global warming problem by reducing the level of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. In Japan, the government agreed to allocate 3.9% of the pursued reduction to forest sector activities. On the other hand, the private sector of forestry is implementing the emission trading for such a purpose of reduction. While these activities for the reduction have been paid a great deal of attention, replantation and/or thinning activities are tended to be abandoned. That is, if no forestry practices were implemented, such a function of carbon sequestration induced by forests might not be apparent. Behind this phenomenon of the abandonment, there might be a fact that forest owners face future reduction of product price as well as price uncertainty, which could discourage their management incentive.
In this research, we first conducted carbon balance analysis on forestry activities from plantation, harvesting, to lumbering based on our field survey and developed a statistical procedure to estimate the amount of carbon sequestered in a forest stand. Following this analysis, carbon evaluation was conducted through the optimization framework on forest stand management under the subsidy policy. Evaluation method was based on the shadow price approach. The above analyses on carbon were based on the assumption of the sustainable forest stand management. However, since forest owners face to economic uncertainty for the management, we next searched for a minimum threshold price to sustain the management. If such a price were known, the sustainable management could be implemented and the above function of carbon sequestration by forest stands becomes sure to be attained by filling a gap between the derived threshold and market prices by some kind of policy.
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