| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
KOBAE Shoicihro University of Miyazaki, Faculty of Agriculture, Professor, 農学部, 教授 (10038276)
KATO Takashi Forest research Inst., Shikoku Branch, Depty, 四国支所長 (40353643)
SHOJI Isao University of Miyazaki, Graduate School of Systems and Information Engineering, University of Tsukuba Professor, 大学院・システム情報工学研究科, 教授 (20282329)
YOSHIMOTO Atsusi Tohoku Univ., Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Associated Professor, 大学院・環境科学研究科, 助教授 (10264350)
FUJIKAKE Icihro University of Miyazaki, Faculty of Agriculture, Associated Professor, 農学部, 助教授 (90243071)
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| Research Abstract |
The results of our research can be summarized as follows.
1)The significance of forest management practices on carbon sequestration for mitigating global warming was analyzed in the forest resource management model (DP-KYSS: dynamic programming model for Kyushu stand simulator). This analysis showed that thinning can prevents reduction of carbon sequestration. Considering subsidies as a compensation for carbon loss by thinning, the evaluation of carbon showed that the present net value of cost per unit carbon loss became the highest for the rotation age of 35 years and the minimum for the rotation age of 50 to 65 years dependent upon the subsidy measure. At the rotation age of 100 years, the present net value of cost per unit carbon loss was found to be 44.56 to 110.13 Euro/Ct. The analyses showed that lengthening the period for subsidy would reduce the value of carbon. Subsidy pays more with more thinning reducing carbon sequestered in a forest stand.
2) We analyzed the economic mechani
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sms around forest conversion to other land uses using the data for 442 towns in Kyushu 7 prefectures in 1990s. We obtained the results that three variables, i.e., the percentage of plantation forests, the ratio of land owned by in-town owners, the density of forestry workers reduce forest conversion to each of leisure use, industrial use and residential use, which suggests that forestry management on-going under favorable conditions can brake forest conversion.
3) We focused on Miyazaki Prefecture where forestry is the most vigorous and replantation abandonment is the most pervasive in Japan. We found that most forests harvested are replanted in the same year if it is replanted, and that 65% of harvested lands are replanted by the next year, leaving other 35% possibly abandoned.
4) The change of timber imports from North American which has the largest share in the timber imported to Japan can have more significant effect on the demand for NZ timber than that for domestic timber. 10% increase of both housing starts and oil prices in the US only induces 1% increase of domestic timber purchased. This means that even if the decrease of timber imports from North America is realized, the utilization of Japan's forest resources which has now the largest ever volume is still stagnated and thus sustainable management of the nation's forest is not an easy task.
5) We examined the effects of carbon tax on the demand of wooden houses using the by-structure housing demand equations system. Results illustrates that we cannot expect large increase of wooden housing demand from the introduction of carbon tax if the tax rate is in the range that the government is now presenting. In order to accelerate the announcement effect of new tax introduction, the enlightenment activity to appeal consumers the fact that wooden houses are good in terms of fossil fuel consumption, and other activities are needed to connect consumers to wooden house.
6) We presented a forest sector model for lumber markets with a focus on eight Japanese regions (Tohoku, Kanto, Hokuriku, Chubu, Kinki, Chugoku, Shikoku, and Kyushu), China and Korea. With the estimated price elasticities for these regions, we analyzed the characteristics of the supply and demand structure through the spatial and inter-temporal partial equilibrium market model called JAFSEM (Japanese Forest Sector Model). Our results showed the following; 1) the price elasticities of lumber demand and supply in the whole are small in Kyushu and Chugoku, where production area of domestic timber and the US processed lumber, respectively is active, 2) the price elasticities of lumber demand is big in Kanto, such a prefecture with big consumption area, 3) Japanese regional lumber demand except Kyushu would increase, and 4) the additional demand for lumber would be met by Korea and China. Less
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