2005 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
Development of Economic Evaluation Methodology of Anti-quake Design for Port Facilities considering Catastrophic Risk
| Project/Area Number |
15510156
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Natural disaster science
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| Research Institution | National Institute for Land, Infrastructure and Management |
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Principal Investigator |
SHIBASAKI Ryuichi National Institute for Land, Infrastructure and Management, Port Systems Division, Port and Harbour Department, Researcher, 港湾研究部港湾システム研究室, 研究官 (50323514)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
IEDA Hitoshi the University of Tokyo, School of Engineering, Professor, 大学院・工学系研究科, 教授 (90168089)
NAGAO Tsuyoshi National Institute for Land, Infrastructure and Management, Port and Harbour Department, Head of Port Facilities Division, 港湾研究部港湾施設研究室, 室長 (30356042)
WATANABE Tomihiro National Institute for Land, Infrastructure and Management, Port and Harbour Department, Head of Port Systems Division, 港湾研究部港湾システム研究室, 室長 (10356040)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2003 – 2005
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| Keywords | Anti-quake Design / Gravity-type Quay Wall / Economic Evaluation / Freight Transport / Catastrophic Risk / Risk with very low Probability / Fragility Curve |
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| Research Abstract |
When performing economic evaluations of quaywalls, breakwaters, and other port facilities, it is essential to consider not only the cost of construction and improvement of facilities and the cost of reconstructing facilities that have been damaged by an earthquake, but to also consider the loss of economic activities when they are damaged. In addition, a stochastic evaluation method must be developed, because these economic losses are very dependent on the state of damaged facilities. Thus the objective of this paper is to develop a stochastic evaluation method that can evaluate the economic impact of port facilities considering the cost of the loss of freight transportation, taking gravity-type quay walls as an example of port facilities.
The problem is formulated as choosing the seismic coefficient of specific port facilities by the following procedure. i)First, for each gravity type quaywall that is evaluated, preparing the earthquake occurrence probability by scale defined for each
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port and its hypothetical section for each seismic coefficient, Next ii)estimating the state of damage that would occur by a Monte Carlo simulation based on the fragility curves by damage state that are provided for each hypothetical section. Then iii)estimating the restoration cost and loss of freight transportation cost for each pattern, while also considering the state of damage to neighboring ports. iv)calculating the expected damage by earthquakes with each seismic coefficient by summarizing the estimated cost of an earthquake of each scale multiplied by its occurrence frequency. And finally, v)totaling the construction cost and the expected damage obtained by iv)and setting a seismic coefficient that will minimize this total cost.
The proposed method is applied to container berths in two sample ports. The first is a case of a port with only a single berth for container cargo, and the other is a case of a port with multiple berths for container cargo. The results show that the optimal seismic coefficients that are estimated occasionally differ depending on whether or not the cost of the loss of freight transportation was considered. Less
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