2004 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
Simulation Analysis of the Public Health Insurance in an Aging Japan with asymmetric Information
| Project/Area Number |
15530156
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Applied economics
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| Research Institution | Shiga University |
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Principal Investigator |
KATO Ryuta Ray Shiga University, Faculty of Economics, Associate Professor, 経済学部, 助教授 (60242971)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2003 – 2004
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| Keywords | Aging Population / Public Health Insurance / Public Pension Scheme / Intergenerational Redistribution / Year 2004 Public Pension Reform / Simulation |
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| Research Abstract |
This project has examined the effects of the demographic change and the government debt policy in Japan on economic growth and economic welfare, particularly by taking into account the existing public pension scheme as well as national medical expenditure through the existing public health insurance, where a computational overlapping generations model is used within a general equilibrium context. One of the main results of this project is that the tax burden (GDP) ratio will increase up to about 36%, and the social security burden (GDP) ratio will increase up to 23.3% in 2050, even though the government tries to have a positive primary balance by 2010. The ratio of public health insurance benefits to GDP is expected to increase at 1% every 10 years, and the ratio will be around 9.6% in 2050. The 2004 public pension reform will successfully result in a 13 point decrease in the contribution rate from 36.44% to 23.53%, and reduce the social security burden (GDP) ratio by about 8 points from 23.27% to 15.02% in 2050, compared with the benchmark case.
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