2005 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
Evaluation of Economic Transition Policies and International Assistance for Cental Asian Transition Countries : the Case of Mongolia
| Project/Area Number |
15530187
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Economic policy
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| Research Institution | Nanzan University (2005)
Kobe University (2003-2004) |
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Principal Investigator |
UENO Hiroshi Nanzan University, Faculty of Policy Studies, Professor, 総合政策学部, 教授 (10324906)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2003 – 2005
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| Keywords | transition economies / Mongolia / economic transition policies / policy evaluation / developing countries / international cooperation / development assistance / economic development polices |
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| Research Abstract |
The purpose of this study is to evaluate the economic transition policies of Mongolia and the assistance policies to Mongolia in terms of (a)macroeconomic performance of Mongolian economy as the results of these policies, and (b)whether or not the intended goals and objectives of these policies were achieved and to what extent.
The transition of Mongolia from the command economy to a market economy started in 1990. The primary goal of the government policies and assistance policies in 1990 and several subsequent years was to achieve the economic and political transition successfully. The government took the "big-bang" policy, which is the policy intending to achieve the transition swiftly and in its entirety. If we assess the results of this policy only in terms of economic performance, it was a success. If we measure the success in terms of policy goals having been intended to achieve, the performance was a half success and a half failure. It succeeded in terms of economic objectives a
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nd of establishing basic institutions for the market economy in Mongolia. It was a failure in terms of "big bang." That is, the transition took 10 year to achieve the economic goals and to establish necessary institutions, which is much longer than the big-bang policy envisaged. And, even now there are yet many components that were not achieved as planned.
The overall economic performance of Mongolia from 1990 through 2000 was good in general, and its macroeconomy almost recovered the level of 1989 GDP in real term in 2000. After 2000, the principal objectives of the government have changed from achieving the transition to achieving economic growth and poverty reduction. If we assess the performance regarding the two objectives based on data up to 2004, the economic growth objective has been achieved successfully mainly thanks to high international prices to export commodities and relatively large and steady inflow of ODA funds. The poverty reduction objective is not yet achieved as of 2004 and this will be a major challenge for the Mongolian government for years to come.
With respect to assistance policies, there have been many policies by many donors. IMF' policies and their implementation seem to have contributed to the good performance of the macroeconomic management of Mongolia. Contributions of the World Bank seem to be in sectoral development. Results of the Asian Development Bank policies seem to be mixed. Less
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