2005 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
Estimation of Distribution of Population using Migration Model in Age Group and Political Simulation in Japan
| Project/Area Number |
15560461
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
交通工学・国土計画
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| Research Institution | The University of Tokushima |
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Principal Investigator |
KONDO Akio The University of Tokushima, Graduate School of Engineering, Professor, 大学院・工学研究科, 教授 (10145013)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
HIROSE Yoshinobu The University of Tokushima, Graduate School of Engineering, Associate Professor, 大学院・工学研究科, 助教授 (90240887)
TOYODA Tetsuya The University of Tokushima, Faculty of Integrated Arts and Sciences, Associate Professor, 総合科学部, 助教授 (30260615)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2003 – 2005
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| Keywords | Migration Model / Difference in Utility / Regional Relationship / Decrease in Population / Population Concentration / Migration of Age Group / Migration Pattern / Psychology Factor |
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| Research Abstract |
The aim of this study is to construct a migration model taking the degree of relationship between regions which expresses natural condition, regional histories and cultures, and psychological factors into a model based on regional difference in utility between regions. At the same time, some socioeconomic macro factors are introduced to this model. The political simulation using this model is the aim of the study, too.
First, an age group migration model is derived in rural region where many towns and villages have already faced serious concerns related to rapid increase in aging population and a low birthrate. As a result, it is proved that the relationship between regions is explained by three variables, the travel time between regions, whether the regions belong to same basin and whether the regions are connected by same number of national road networks, which have a significant influence on migration flow.
Second, a migration model including variables of change in condition by development of transportation facilities and the existence of historical trunk roads is applied to all over Japan to clarify the influence of development of transportation facilities on migration. As a result, the variables related to traffic condition incorporated in the model are valuable and effective. This result will be of references to future policy.
At last, a migration model in consideration of change in consciousness of life is derived to clarify the influence of psychological factors to migration. As a result, it can be said that people move independently of their perception of the world where they live and their actual life when migration is very active. On the other hand, when migration is passive, it can be said that their perception of the world where they live and their actual life affects migration. In addition, the policy is discussed based on population distribution of the national land which was obtain by the political simulation using the model.
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Research Products
(8 results)
