2004 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
estimated difference in long-term prognosis of HCV carriers with or without medical treatment-effectivity on check up system for HCV carrier in Japan-
| Project/Area Number |
15590513
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Hygiene
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| Research Institution | HIROSHIMA UNIVERSITY |
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Principal Investigator |
TANAKA Junko Hiroshima University, Graduate school of Biomedical Sciences, Associate Professor, 大学院・医歯薬学総合研究科, 助教授 (70155266)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
KATAYAMA Keiko Hiroshima University, Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Research Associate, 大学院・医歯薬学総合研究科, 助手 (50304415)
YOSHIZAWA Hiroshi Hiroshima University, Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Professor, 大学院・医歯薬学総合研究科, 教授 (30109954)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2003 – 2004
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| Keywords | estimated number of HCV carriers / Epidemiologic model / persistent HCV infection / Markov property Model / effectiveness of check-up system / Natural course of HCV carrier |
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| Research Abstract |
1)Estimated number of HCV carriers who are unconscious of HCV infection are 885 thousands carriers among the age of 16-69. Among the age of 40-69, that is 759 thousands carriers.
2)among the age of 40-69 in 2000, 263,504 carriers in male and 193,176 in female are assumed as chronic hepatitis, 6,274 carriers in male and 4,364 in female are assumed as liver cirrhosis, and 5,585 carriers in male and 0 in female are assumed HCC, and in 2010, 10 years have passed without any treatment, 43,474 carriers in male and 57,528 in female are assumed as liver cirrhosis, and 46,796 carriers in male and 21,779 in female are assumed HCC.
3)on the other hands, assuming the suitable medical treatment for HCV carriers in 2000 and 10 years have passed, 81,966 carriers in male and 83,916 in female are eradicated from HCV.
It is concluded that effectiveness of check up system for HCV carriers are summarized by the estimated value of number of eradicated carrier from HCV and reduction of HCC cases.
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