Analysis of population dynamics by age group for regional revitalization under the population declining

2017 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 15H04056
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Civil engineering project/Traffic engineering
• Research Institution: National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
• Principal Investigator: Morichi Shigeru 政策研究大学院大学, 政策研究科, アカデミックフェロー (40016473)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 日比野 直彦 政策研究大学院大学, 政策研究科, 准教授 (10318206)
• Project Period (FY): 2015-04-01 – 2018-03-31
• Keywords: 人口減少 / 少子高齢化 / 人口移動 / 限界集落 / 地域創生 / 一極集中 / 地域経済 / 産業別生産額

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The main findings obtained by analyzing economic data of nationwide municipalities under the declining population are as follows. ①Even under the declining population, the economy size and per capita output do not decrease. The per capita production value is decreasing after the Lehman shock only in nine areas, the six of nine are the islands and the nuclear power plant stop areas. ②The 305 living spheres integrated 1724 municipalities are classified into 6 categories based on population trends by age. ③Under the in-migration from rural areas, core cities, central cities, and the three largest cities to the upper cities, there is a dilemma that the policy to stop the inflow of upper city brings more concentration in the next ranking city. ④By presenting the data of each area to the local researcher and department in charge of the prefecture and making a match with the actual facts of the locality, the data analysis of this research is useful for the regional activation measures.

Free Research Field

土木計画、国土政策、交通政策