Estimation of Tsunami Evacuation Facility Choice Behavior Model and Optimal Location of Tsunami Evacuation Facilities

2018 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 15H04102
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Town planning/Architectural planning
• Research Institution: Keio University
• Principal Investigator: KISHIMOTO TATSUYA 慶應義塾大学, 理工学部(矢上), 准教授 (30302532)
• Project Period (FY): 2015-04-01 – 2019-03-31
• Keywords: 避難施設 / 津波 / 配置 / 避難行動 / 行動モデル

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This research developed mathematical models for evacuation behavior from large tsunami attack, based on the data of the evacuation behavior questionnaire for beach bathers, the evacuation behavior questionnaire by online, and the evacuation of actual evacuation behavior in the Great East Japan Earthquake. Evacuation behavior was modeled by geographical location of evacuees, location of evacuation facilities, their direction from sea shore, their size and height, topography such as river and altitude, house-building type evacuees live, number of floors of the building, floor level they live, personal attributes of evacuees, and etc. As a result, the number of evacuees to each facility and the number of evacuees who choose to remain at home are quantitatively estimated. Spatial probabilities of each behavior are visualized, and that enables us to comprehensively discuss the optimal location of evacuation facilities.

Free Research Field

建築計画

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

津波からの避難は、従来は、内陸の方向へ避難する、標高の高い方向に避難する、という極めて単純な原則にしたがって検討されることが多かった。しかし、現実には、海側の施設に避難をしたり、避難をせずに、自宅に留まるという行動も見られる。本研究は、実際の避難行動データおよびアンケート調査にもとづき、より正確にかつ詳細に、避難行動を説明できる、数理的な避難行動モデルを構築した。本成果を用いれば、より正確に、実際の避難行動を予測することが可能であり、予測に基づいた避難計画の策定、避難施設の最適配置を検討できる。