A wind power generation forecasting system based on meteorological model and GIS

2018 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 15K01168
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Geography
• Research Institution: Tokyo Metropolitan University
• Principal Investigator: IZUMI Takeki 首都大学東京, 都市環境科学研究科, 助教 (10336513)
• Research Collaborator: WATANABE Takanori
• Project Period (FY): 2015-04-01 – 2019-03-31
• Keywords: 風力発電 / 領域気象モデル / GIS

Outline of Final Research Achievements

In this study, a wind power generation forecasting system based on meteorological model and GIS was developed. Influence of the wind farm location on the forecasting accuracy of wind power generation were examined.
As a result, it was found that ensemble methods using multiple initial value data are more efficient than the multi-model ensemble to improve the accuracy of wind forecasting. While the wind power generation forecasting accuracy of the wind farm on flat terrain was high, the accuracy of the wind farm on complex terrain was found to be highly variable. It was found that the forecasting accuracy of the wind farm on complex terrain can be improved by making corrections taking into account the wind direction and velocity around the wind farm.

Free Research Field

地理学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究により、近年注目を浴びている自然エネルギーの1つである風力発電の発電量予測が比較的容易かつ精度良く行える方法が明らかとなった。これにより既存の風力発電所の発電量予測への活用だけでなく、新たに風力発電所を開発する際の立地分析などにも応用できる可能性が示された。ただし、山岳地などの複雑地形上に発電所が立地する場合には、予測精度にばらつきが見られるため慎重な判断が必要である。