Religious aspect of ideological conflict in current American politics

2019 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 15K03260
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Politics
• Research Institution: Hokkaido University of Education
• Principal Investigator: Iiyama Masashi 北海道教育大学, 函館校, 教授 (80732023)
• Project Period (FY): 2015-04-01 – 2020-03-31
• Keywords: アメリカ / 宗教右派 / 福音派 / 宗教と政治 / 共和党 / 民主党

Outline of Final Research Achievements

One of the major factors behind the growing ideological cracks in US politics is the spread of religious disputes due to the transformation of religious conservative white evangelicals into Republican bedrock supporters. This study quantitatively analyzes evangelical political trends as a means of estimating whether evangelicals will continue to support Republicans.
Regression analysis shows that, despite controlling for various socio-economic attributes, membership in evangelical churches is a significant factor in supporting Republicans, a trend that was strengthened in the 2012 presidential election. The politics of young evangelicals in 2016 were not significantly different from those of older generations, indicating that evangelicals are likely to remain Republican bedrock supporters.

Free Research Field

アメリカ政治

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

1990年代のような米国の宗教右派運動は衰退したが、福音派が今後も共和党の岩盤支持層であり続ける見通しが強い。このため、宗教的争点は今後も米国政治の機能不全をもたらす要因となっていくであろう。トランプ政権において、白人中間層の共和党支持が注目されているが、彼らと宗教保守層は大きく重なっており、宗教的側面での対立構造に変化は見られていない。
このため、共和党は高所得高学歴の富裕層の政党から、低学歴中低所得層の宗教保守的な支持層の政党へと変質を続ける可能性が高い。それは自由貿易や国際主義を掲げてきた同党主流派の衰退を意味し、日本外交にとってもきわめて憂慮すべき展開となるであろう。