A Theory of Subjective Information Structures

2017 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 15K03351
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Economic theory
• Research Institution: Hitotsubashi University (2016-2017); Yokohama National University (2015)
• Principal Investigator: Takeoka Norio 一橋大学, 大学院経済学研究科, 教授 (80434695)
• Research Collaborator: HIGASHI Youichiro 岡山大学, 経済学部, 教授 ; HYOGO Kazuya 龍谷大学, 経済学部, 准教授 ; Noor Jawwad ボストン大学, 経済学部, 准教授 ; Piermont Evan ロンドン大学, 経済学部, 講師 ; Teper Roee ピッツバーグ大学, 経済学部, 准教授 ; UI Takashi 一橋大学, 大学院経済学研究科, 教授
• Project Period (FY): 2015-04-01 – 2018-03-31
• Keywords: 主観的情報構造 / 主観確率 / ベイズ的予想改訂 / 公理的意思決定理論

Outline of Final Research Achievements

In a dynamic model under uncertainty, a standard model is the Bayesian model, where a decision maker has a information structure consisting of an initial prior over a state space and signals, and he updates the initial prior according to signals. However, this information structure is a private information of the decision maker and is not directly observable to the outside observer or analyst.
This research extends Savage's model about subjective probabilities and derives not only subjective probabilities but also an information structure from preference. We extend the existing literature toward a multi-period setting and axiomatize a model with endogenous selection of information structure. Moreover, we extend the model to incorporate learning about future tastes as well as learning about information about states.

Free Research Field

ミクロ経済学、意思決定理論