Future Expectation and Short- and Medium-run Fluctuations of Japanese Economy

2017 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 15K03373
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Economic theory
• Research Institution: Kwansei Gakuin University
• Principal Investigator: OKADA Toshihiro 関西学院大学, 経済学部, 教授 (50411773)
• Project Period (FY): 2015-04-01 – 2018-03-31
• Keywords: ニューケインジアンモデル / 内生的技術進歩 / ニュースショック / フィリップス曲線

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This research extends a New Keynesian model to allow for R&D-based endogenous technology. The model includes conventional shocks as well as technology news shocks. The research quantitatively analyzes short- and medium-run fluctuations.
The research has two main results. First, the model solves the "inflation persistence puzzle." It explains the persistence in inflation (the existence of the backward-looking term in the estimation of the new Keynesian Phillips curve) without relying on the ad hoc and empirically inconsistent assumptions made by conventional new Keynesian models. Second, the model solves the "disinflationary news shock puzzle." It explains the disinflationary effect of a news shock, which conventional new Keynesian models have difficulty explaining.

Free Research Field

マクロ経済学