2017 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
A study on estimation of volatility using big data analysis
Project/Area Number |
15K03406
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Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
Section | 一般 |
Research Field |
Economic statistics
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Research Institution | Kwansei Gakuin University |
Principal Investigator |
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Project Period (FY) |
2015-10-21 – 2018-03-31
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Keywords | ビッグデータ / オンラインニュース / 動的トピックモデル / トピックスコア / 予測 / 実現ボラティリティ |
Outline of Final Research Achievements |
1. Data manipulation: We used Reuters Japan's online news article as a proxy variable for information supply. Then, we executed morphological analysis on the acquired online news articles and converted these into data for each word class. 2. Model formulation: We implemented time series models with lag values of topic score calculated using a dynamic topic model which is one of stochastic generating models of documents and volatility as explanatory variables. 3. Outcome: By using the model including the topic score, we could demonstrate empirically that the predictive power of volatility improves.
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Free Research Field |
経済統計学
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