2017 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Evaluation of market performance from the point of mark-ups and risk-premium in shipping freight markets
| Project/Area Number |
15K03463
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Economic policy
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| Research Institution | Nihon University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2015-04-01 – 2018-03-31
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| Keywords | 海上輸送産業 / マークアップ / 集中度 / リスクプレミアム / リスクに対する態度 / 不確実性 / 不定期船市場 / 貯蔵不可能性 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
The purpose of the study is to evaluate market performance in the shipping freight markets under uncertainty. First, we constructed a game-theoretical model, and derived a unique Nash equilibrium explicitly. The mark-up in the equilibrium spot price can be decomposed into a realization of market power and a kind of risk premium determined by the risk attitude of market participants. Then, we found that the more risk-averse, and/or the less concentration in the market, the lower level of shipping freight rates could be realized.
Second, to see the effects of risk attitude on risk premiums, we calibrated the risk attitude of participants in tramp shipping markets from 2007 to 2013, and provided an example of the application of risk attitude. To achieve this, we applied a framework that consists of structural model and calibration with market data. We found that a structural break occurred around 2010. After the structural break, market participants tended to be more risk-averse.
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| Free Research Field |
社会科学・経済学・経済政策・交通経済学
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