The Population Decrease of Hokkaido,Sapporo City, their Future:System Development for Regional Population Analysis

2017 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 15K03849
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Sociology
• Research Institution: Sapporo City University
• Principal Investigator: HARA Toshihiko 札幌市立大学, デザイン学部, 教授 (00208654)
• Project Period (FY): 2015-04-01 – 2018-03-31
• Keywords: 地方創生 / 地域人口 / GIS / システムダイナミックモデル / 少子化 / 高齢化 / 人口減少 / シミュレーション

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This study aims to develop a system to simulate a regional population with changing socio-economic factors and policy measures, to break down its results to small Areas　to display by the GIS (Geographic Information System). It will be to visualize the outcomes of Population Vision of Chiho Sousei (Regional Revitalization Policy) geographically. Through the analysis of recent population dynamics in Japanese manicipalties, Hokkaido and Sapporo City, the three main factors, 1) enterting higher education and outcomming to job in young adalts, 2) moving to hospital and care instutions in elderlys, 3) inmigrating foreigners as a temporal worker, were identified to promote low fertility trend, rapid aging and population changes. Based on the new method, we broke down the results of the regional population projections of Japan, 2010-2040 (NIPSSR 2013), for ten districts of Sapporo City to small areas from 2015 to 2040 and showed sucessfully the population movements in small areas.

Free Research Field

社会学