Development of mathematical model for dengue transmission and strategical simulations for the control against dengue outbreak

2017 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 15K04990
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Foundations of mathematics/Applied mathematics
• Research Institution: Tokyo Medical and Dental University
• Principal Investigator: ISHIKAWA Hirofumi 東京医科歯科大学, 大学院医歯学総合研究科, 非常勤講師 (00108101)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 下河原 理江子 東京医科歯科大学, 医学部, 非常勤講師 (50146776)
• Research Collaborator: FUEDA Kaori 滋賀大学, データサイエンス学部, 教授 ; KOBAYASHI Daisuke 国立感染症研究所, 昆虫医科学部, 流動研究員
• Project Period (FY): 2015-04-01 – 2018-03-31
• Keywords: デング熱 / 感染症数理モデル / ヒトスジシマカ / アウトブレイク / リスクアセスメント / 東京 / 不顕性感染 / 東京オリンピック

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The first outbreak of autochthonous dengue fever in Japan since 1945 was occurred in Yoyogi Park and its vicinity, Tokyo in the summer of 2014, and a total of 160 dengue cases were confirmed. Dengue viruses circulate between humans and Aedes albopictus, which is highly influenced by seasonal factors.
We investigated how the dengue fever outbreak in Yoyogi Park and its vicinity progressed through stochastic simulations on the basis of a mathematical model for transmission of dengue virus. It is necessary for prevention from a large-scale outbreak to detect asymptomatic cases at early stage and reduce the survival rate of Ae. albopictus.
We have misgivings about recurrence of dengue autochthonous infections in near future. In addition, Olympic Games will be held in Tokyo in summer of 2020. This study carried out a risk assessment of autochthonous dengue fever in Tokyo, Japan on the basis of a mathematical model incorporating with seasonal factors.

Free Research Field

感染症数理モデル