2018 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

Evaluation Methods and Decision-Making Processes for Long-term Transport Plans

Research Project

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Project/Area Number	15K06261
Research Category	Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
Allocation Type	Multi-year Fund
Section	一般
Research Field	Civil engineering project/Traffic engineering
Research Institution	Nanzan University
Principal Investigator	Ishikawa Yoshifumi 南山大学, 総合政策学部, 教授 (20329577)
Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha)	岡本信広大東文化大学, 国際関係学部, 教授 (00433863) 石倉智樹首都大学東京, 都市環境科学研究科, 准教授 (30356050)
Project Period (FY)	2015-04-01 – 2019-03-31
Keywords	産業連関表 / ＳＣＧＥ / 政策評価 / 交通政策
Outline of Final Research Achievements	This study has two purposes. The first is to clarify the decision-making process for transport plans in various countries and identify the evaluation indices and methods used thereof. The second purpose is to develop models for analyzing the various impacts of transport projects. For this study, we investigated literature on the decision-making process in the USA,the UK,New Zealand,Germany,the Netherlands,and so on.In these countries,various types of impacts have been estimated for conducting of ex-ante evaluation,and evaluation models such as SCGE modeling have been developed. In this study, we developed the SCGE model for transport plans, and constructed four types of inter-regional input-output tables, at the prefectural level, the daily living area level, for a specific region and another region, and China’s multi-regional input-output table. In addition, we considered a method for estimating the value of bus services and analyzed the value by CVM.
Free Research Field	政策評価
Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements	我が国の交通政策は、社会資本整備重点計画及び交通政策基本計画の策定が進むなど、総合的な交通政策が確立されつつある。このような中長期の交通関連の計画は、着実な政策評価に基づく進捗管理が期待される。海外では、例えばＥＵにおいて10 年間の長期計画の策定と見直しにおいては、科学的手法に基づく総合的な定量評価が行われている。また、その評価にあたっては定性的な分析や個別政策のアウトカム指標だけでなく、その政策全体として持続可能な観点からの評価を行っている。本研究は、日本における今後の交通政策において、その意思決定プロセスと評価を行う上で重要な検討が行われている。