Development of prediction methodologies of stochastic energy demand based on the occupants' behaviors

2017 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 15K06324
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Architectural environment/Equipment
• Research Institution: Kyushu University
• Principal Investigator: Hagishima Aya 九州大学, 総合理工学研究院, 教授 (60294980)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 谷本 潤 九州大学, 総合理工学研究院, 教授 (60227238) ; 池谷 直樹 九州大学, 総合理工学研究院, 助教 (70628213)
• Research Collaborator: Shiekh Ahmad Zaki Shaikh Salim マレーシア工科大学, マレーシア日本国際工科院, Senior Lecturer
• Project Period (FY): 2015-04-01 – 2018-03-31
• Keywords: 空調熱負荷 / 居住者行動 / 住宅 / 統計解析 / 電力需要

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The authors performed a field survey on occupants' behavior toward the use of air-conditioners (A/C) in residential buildings in Malaysia in order to establish methodologies for estimating the stochastic time patterns of energy demand in tropical climate. Temperatures of room air and outlet of A/C were measured in 60 dwellings every 15 minutes, and converted into the information of when occupants turned on/off the A/C.
Based on the analysis of the measured data, it was revealed that the occupants behavior toward A/C use in Malaysia can not be modeled by the current Markov-model developed in mid-latitude countries, which adopts a sigmoid function for expressing the probability of A/C off-on behavior with an input variable of indoor thermal condition, such as room air temperature owing to the difference of the climate. With this finding, the authors established a new algorithm for generating stochastic A/C operation schedule based on the statistics of the measurement.

Free Research Field

建築環境工学