Future prediction of clinical epidemiological feature on intractable diseases(Behcet diseas, Pemphigus vulgaris)

2018 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 15K08750
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Epidemiology and preventive medicine
• Research Institution: Juntendo University
• Principal Investigator: Kuroawa Michiko 順天堂大学, 医学部, 准教授 (70245702)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 縣 俊彦 東京慈恵会医科大学, 医学部, 准教授 (50147576)
• Project Period (FY): 2015-04-01 – 2019-03-31
• Keywords: 難病 / 将来推計 / ベーチェット病 / 天疱瘡

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The following data are used (2013 Vital Statistics、The National Institute of Population and Social Security Research: Medium variant projections in Population Projection for Japan (Estimated in 2012), 2013 Report on Public Health Administration and Services: Number of intractable disease patients receiving financial aid for treatment), we estimated the number of patients with Behcet's disease and pemphigus vulgaris patients for 2020 to 2060 years. Next, the same estimation was made for all intractable diseases and 18 intractable diseases. And the peak of the increase in the number of patients of each disease was confirmed. In addition, the aging of patients with intractable diseases in the future was confirmed. For 55 diseases, we have identified employment rates at 20 to 59 years of age by gender in the clinical database.

Free Research Field

衛生学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

日本の高齢化が進む中、原因不明で治療法未確立の難病患者も高齢化していくことが予想される。ベーチェット病と天疱瘡の年齢分布や患者数が将来どのように変化していくのか推計した。他の難病18疾患、および難病法施行前の特定疾患全体についても同様の推計を行った。臨床調査個人票データで特定疾患55疾患の性別20～59歳の受給者の就労割合を確認した。患者全体の高齢化が進む中、難病患者の就労割合を上げていくことが難病対策に期待される。