Global food security under extreme climate

2016 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 15K16164
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Environmental policy and social systems
• Research Institution: National Institute for Environmental Studies
• Principal Investigator: Hasegawa Tomoko 国立研究開発法人国立環境研究所, 社会環境システム研究センター, 研究員 (60615524)
• Project Period (FY): 2015-04-01 – 2017-03-31
• Keywords: 気候変動 / 極端現象 / 栄養不足 / 食料消費 / 経済影響

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Future climate variability is a concern for food security. Although the uncertainty of food security under the mean climate state has been quantified in numerous studies, variability has rarely been taken into account. We clarified how projections of the risk of hunger are affected by potential changes in crop yields under climate variability and other major uncertainties expected to occur by the middle of this century. The results suggest that the magnitude of uncertainty increases over time regardless of socioeconomic developments. The results also suggest that better food storage or food aid systems are required in affected countries so that they can tolerate the worst case.

Free Research Field

システム工学