Spatial-temporal evaluation modeling of pandemic influenza risk with person trip survey data

2016 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 15K16300
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Social systems engineering/Safety system
• Research Institution: Nagasaki University (2016); Kumamoto University (2015)
• Principal Investigator: YOSHIDA Mamoru 長崎大学, 水産・環境科学総合研究科(環境), 准教授 (60539550)
• Research Collaborator: KAKIMOTO Ryuji ; MARUYAMA Takuya
• Project Period (FY): 2015-04-01 – 2017-03-31
• Keywords: リスク評価 / 新型インフルエンザ / パーソントリップ調査 / 時空間評価

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This research proposed a framework of spatial-temporal evaluation of pandemic influenza risk with person trip survey data. In details, it modeled the spatial-temporal infection process considering family infection and school infection, and proposed four indices: 1) the number of infected persons, 2) the infectious period, 3) the distribution of areas where individuals are infected, and 4) the distribution of areas where individuals live, and showed these availability through a case study of Kumamoto Metropolitan person trip survey data. The results were presented in the related domestic and international conferences.

Free Research Field

社会安全システム