Study on predictability of heavy precipitation by estimating origins of precipitation and water vapor over Japan

2017 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 15K16310
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Natural disaster / Disaster prevention science
• Research Institution: The University of Tokyo
• Principal Investigator: Tanoue Masahiro 東京大学, 生産技術研究所, 特任研究員 (20735550)
• Co-Investigator(Renkei-kenkyūsha): ICHIYANAGI Kimpei 熊本大学, 大学院先端科学研究部(理), 准教授 (50371737) ; YOSHIMURA Kei 東京大学, 生産技術研究所, 准教授 (50376638)
• Project Period (FY): 2015-04-01 – 2018-03-31
• Keywords: 日本 / 同位体領域気候モデル / 起源解析

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This study estimated the origins of precipitation and water vapor over Japan using a regional isotope climate model to explore a possibility of predication of heavy precipitation region from the isotopic ratio and origins of precipitation. The model showed good spatial and temporal distributions of isotopic ratio of precipitation over Japan, indicating that the model could reproduce the real atmospheric hydrological cycle. In summer season, the model showed that the d-excess value of water vapor at surface level is a a possibility of prediction of heavy rainfall region, because the values reflects atmospheric stability associated with the migration of Asia summer monsoon. In winter, we found positive relationship between d-excess value and a contribution of water vapor originating from the Sea of Japan, and the intensity of East Asia winter monsoon. The d-excess value is an index of the intensity.

Free Research Field

同位体水文気象学