Estimation for variability of extreme precipitation using ensemble forecast data

2016 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 15K16316
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Natural disaster / Disaster prevention science
• Research Institution: Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
• Principal Investigator: FUJITA Mikiko 国立研究開発法人海洋研究開発機構, シームレス環境予測研究分野, 技術研究員 (50426293)
• Project Period (FY): 2015-04-01 – 2017-03-31
• Keywords: 極端降水 / 可降水量 / 気候変動

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Uncertainty of extreme precipitation and water vapor was investigated using ensemble forecast data by dynamical downscaling and observational data. We investigated the variability of extreme precipitation using very extreme precipitation event occurred in 2015 summer around Japan. The extreme precipitation occurred under the limited situation linking two typhoons, however, our results show the possibility to speculate the areas, where is close to the actual damaged area, to watch out for similar disasters.
As a source of precipitation, we also investigated the relationship between precipitable water vapor and surface temperature using long-term observational data. We found that the precipitable water vapor increases with higher rate than that estimated in previous study. The results show the importance to observe vertical profiles of temperature and humidity correctly that change drastically coupled with the surface temperature increases.

Free Research Field

気象・気候