Simultaneous estimation of time-varying sexual contact network and prevalence of sexually transmitted infection from sexual behavior data

2017 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 15K19217
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Epidemiology and preventive medicine
• Research Institution: Hokkaido University
• Principal Investigator: Omori Ryosuke 北海道大学, 人獣共通感染症リサーチセンター, 助教 (10746952)
• Research Collaborator: Abu-Raddad Laith J. Weill Cornell Medicine in Qatar, Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, 教授
• Project Period (FY): 2015-04-01 – 2018-03-31
• Keywords: 疫学 / HIV / 性行動 / ネットワーク / 数理モデル

Outline of Final Research Achievements

A statistical model describing sexual partnering was established for estimation of sexual behavior at population level. The analysis of association between HIV prevalence and model parameters in the model described above showed no clear association, this suggests that the estimation of HIV prevalence from sexual behavior survey is difficult. Towards to evaluate efficacy of an alternative method, the estimation of HIV prevalence from the HSV-2 prevalence, the association of HIV and HSV-2 prevalences was explored. The result suggests the association depends on topology of sexual contact network.

Free Research Field

感染症疫学