Development of "Slip-able area" model for risk assessment of induced seismicity

2016 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 15K20865
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Earth system and resources engineering; Natural disaster / Disaster prevention science
• Research Institution: Tohoku University
• Principal Investigator: MUKUHIRA Yusuke 東北大学, 流体科学研究所, 教育研究支援者 (60723799)
• Research Collaborator: ITO Takatoshi ; ASANUMA Hiroshi ; Markus Häring
• Project Period (FY): 2015-04-01 – 2017-03-31
• Keywords: 誘発地震 / 地震リスク / 微小地震 / 間隙水圧 / 水圧刺激 / 能動的地熱開発 / シェールガス・オイル開発

Outline of Final Research Achievements

We have developed a seismic evaluation method called the possible seismic moment (PoSeMo) model to assess the potential seismic moment that could be released in the future based on current seismic activity. The PoSeMo model assumes the existence of a representative parameter that can describe the seismic characteristics of a given field. This parameter is defined as the seismic moment density, which quantifies the seismic moment able to be released per rock volume. The rock volume presumed to be in critical condition because of stimulation is defined as the stimulated rock volume. The current stimulation condition for the PoSeMo model can be estimated from the product of these two parameters. The difference between the output of the PoSeMo model and the observed cumulative seismic moment corresponds to the cumulative seismic moment that could be released in the future. This value can be transformed into the possible maximum magnitude that has clear physical meaning.

Free Research Field

地球物理学・資源工学