2006 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
Estimating China's Regional Growth Model from Long-Term Provincial Data
| Project/Area Number |
16530141
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Economic statistics
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| Research Institution | Kobe University |
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Principal Investigator |
CHEN Kuang-hui Kobe University, Graduate School of International Cooperation Studies, Professor, 国際協力研究科, 教授 (00188509)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
KAWABATA Koji Kobe University, Graduate School of International Cooperation Studies, Associate Professor, 国際協力研究科, 助教授 (10273806)
HASHIGUCHI Yoshihiro Kobe University, Graduate School of International Cooperation Studies, Research Associate, 国際協力研究科, 助手 (40432554)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2004 – 2006
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| Keywords | China / Growth model / State Space Model / Regional Inequality |
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| Research Abstract |
This study estimates China's regional growth model of the Solow type using its provincial data of gross regional products, capital stocks and labor forces for 1952-2003. The model allows its parameters to be time-varying and is estimated by the Markov chain Monte Carlo method of state space models.
According to our estimates,
1. the provincial rates of technical changes varied considerably, and so were the exogenous parameters of saving and investment rates;
2. every region tends to approach to its steady state, but the transition dynamics does not contribute much to the growth, large part of which is explained by technical change; and
3. China's provinces don't seem to converge to the same steady state and there also is considerable difference in the steady state growth rates among provinces.
This study, however, has some limitations. Some of our estimates of the rates of technical change, though the values seem to be reasonable, have a bit large variances and may influence the above findings. The factors affected the rates of technical change were not analyzed enough due to time limitation. These are left for our future task.
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