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2019 Fiscal Year Annual Research Report

Projecting discharge from the Greenland ice sheet using climatic forcings derived from atmosphere-ocean models

Research Project

Project/Area Number 16H02224
Research InstitutionHokkaido University

Principal Investigator

Greve Ralf  北海道大学, 低温科学研究所, 教授 (90374644)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 杉山 慎  北海道大学, 低温科学研究所, 教授 (20421951)
阿部 彩子  東京大学, 大気海洋研究所, 教授 (30272537)
Project Period (FY) 2016-04-01 – 2020-03-31
Keywords氷床 / 力学 / 気候変動 / 数値モデル / グリーンランド
Outline of Annual Research Achievements

2018年度に開始した研究を継続する形で、最新版の氷床モデルSICOPOLISを使って、現在までの氷期・間氷期サイクルにおけるグリーンランド氷床のスピンアップ実験を実施した。ナッジングと呼ばれる技術を使って、氷床形状に良い再現性を得た。また流動速度の再現を実現するために、反復計算の手法を用いて20の氷床流域毎に底面流動係数の最適化を行った。その結果、流動の速い地域と遅い地域双方において非常に良い結果の一致を見た。
国際的なモデル比較プロジェクトであるISMIP6の一環として、SICOPOLISによるグリーンランド氷床の将来変動数値実験を実施した。この実験における大気と海洋の強制は、MIROCを含むCMIP5とCMIP6の全球気候モデルの代表的な結果によって与えられる。数値実験の結果、2015年から2100年までに、現状の産業活動が維持されると仮定したRCP8.5/SSP5-8.5シナリオに対して133.0 ± 40.7 mm (平均 ± 標準偏差)、二酸化炭素の大きな排出削減を仮定したRCP2.6/SSP1-2.6シナリオに対しては48.6 ± 6.2 mmの海水準寄与が予想されることが明らかになった。もうひとつの氷床モデルISSMを使った計算結果はやや小さな変動結果を示したが、結果を左右する最も重要な要素は大気強制であった。
さらに、氷床北部のピーターマン・フィヨルドに向かって形成された氷床底面の巨大水路について、その氷床流動への影響を数値実験によって解析した。その結果、水路が流動に与える影響は小さいものの、氷床底面融解で発生する水を水理ポテンシャルに従って流す働きが明らかになった。

Research Progress Status

令和元年度が最終年度であるため、記入しない。

Strategy for Future Research Activity

令和元年度が最終年度であるため、記入しない。

  • Research Products

    (33 results)

All 2020 2019 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (4 results) Journal Article (12 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 12 results,  Peer Reviewed: 7 results,  Open Access: 12 results) Presentation (15 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 9 results,  Invited: 2 results) Remarks (2 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI)/PIK Potsdam(ドイツ)

    • Country Name
      GERMANY
    • Counterpart Institution
      Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI)/PIK Potsdam
  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of Texas at Austin/University of Kansas(米国)

    • Country Name
      U.S.A.
    • Counterpart Institution
      University of Texas at Austin/University of Kansas
  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of Oslo(ノルウェー)

    • Country Name
      NORWAY
    • Counterpart Institution
      University of Oslo
  • [Int'l Joint Research] University of Madrid(スペイン)

    • Country Name
      SPAIN
    • Counterpart Institution
      University of Madrid
  • [Journal Article] The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP62020

    • Author(s)
      Goelzer, H. and 41 others (including A. Abe-Ouchi as 8th author, C. Chambers as 16th author, R. Greve as 24th author)
    • Journal Title

      The Cryosphere Discussions

      Volume: 2020 Pages: 1-43

    • DOI

      10.5194/tc-2019-319

    • Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Experimental protocol for sea level projections from ISMIP6 standalone ice sheet models2020

    • Author(s)
      Nowicki, S. and 29 others (including A. Abe-Ouchi as 6th author)
    • Journal Title

      The Cryosphere Discussions

      Volume: 2020 Pages: 1-40

    • DOI

      10.5194/tc-2019-322

    • Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century2020

    • Author(s)
      Seroussi, H. and 45 others (including A. Abe-Ouchi as 6th author, R. Greve as 17th author)
    • Journal Title

      The Cryosphere Discussions

      Volume: 2020 Pages: 1-54

    • DOI

      10.5194/tc-2019-324

    • Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)2020

    • Author(s)
      Levermann, A. and 36 others (including R. Greve as 6th author, F. Saito as 34th author)
    • Journal Title

      Earth System Dynamics

      Volume: 11 Pages: 35-76

    • DOI

      10.5194/esd-11-35-2020

    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Tides modulate crevasse opening prior to a major calving event at Bowdoin Glacier, Northwest Greenland2020

    • Author(s)
      van Dongen, E., G. Jouvet, A. Walter, J. Todd, T. Zwinger, I. Asaji, S. Sugiyama, F. Walter and M. Funk
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Glaciology

      Volume: 66 Pages: 113-123

    • DOI

      10.1017/jog.2019.89

    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] SICOPOLIS-AD v1: an open-source adjoint modeling framework for ice sheet simulation enabled by the algorithmic differentiation tool OpenAD2020

    • Author(s)
      Logan, L. C., S. H. K. Narayanan, R. Greve and P. Heimbach
    • Journal Title

      Geoscientific Model Development

      Volume: 13 Pages: in press

    • DOI

      10.5194/gmd-13-1845-2020

    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Response of the flow dynamics of Bowdoin Glacier, northwestern Greenland, to basal lubrication and tidal forcing2019

    • Author(s)
      Seddik, H., R. Greve, D. Sakakibara, S. Tsutaki, M. Minowa and S. Sugiyama
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Glaciology

      Volume: 65 Pages: 225-238

    • DOI

      10.1017/jog.2018.106

    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] InitMIP-Antarctica: an ice sheet model initialization experiment of ISMIP62019

    • Author(s)
      Seroussi, H. and 38 others (including A. Abe-Ouchi as 4th author, R. Greve as 13th author)
    • Journal Title

      The Cryosphere

      Volume: 13 Pages: 1441-1471

    • DOI

      10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019

    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] On the possibility of a long subglacial river under the north Greenland ice sheet2019

    • Author(s)
      Chambers, C., R. Greve, B. Altena and P.-M. Lefeuvre
    • Journal Title

      The Cryosphere Discussions

      Volume: 2019 Pages: 1-21

    • DOI

      10.5194/tc-2019-141

    • Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Comparative simulations of the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet under simplified Paris Agreement scenarios with the models SICOPOLIS and ISSM2019

    • Author(s)
      Rueckamp, M., R. Greve and A. Humbert
    • Journal Title

      Polar Science

      Volume: 21 Pages: 14-25

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.polar.2018.12.003

    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Description and validation of the ice-sheet model Yelmo (version 1.0)2019

    • Author(s)
      Robinson, A., J. Alvarez-Solas, M. Montoya, H. Goelzer, R. Greve and C. Ritz
    • Journal Title

      Geoscientific Model Development Discussions

      Volume: 2019 Pages: 1-28

    • DOI

      10.5194/gmd-2019-273

    • Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Constraining the geothermal heat flux in Greenland at regions of radar-detected basal water2019

    • Author(s)
      Rezvanbehbahani, S., L. A. Stearns, C. J. van der Veen, G. K. A. Oswald and R. Greve
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Glaciology

      Volume: 65 Pages: 1023-1034

    • DOI

      10.1017/jog.2019.79

    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Short-term ice speed variations near the calving front of Bowdoin Glacier, northwestern Greenland2020

    • Author(s)
      Sugiyama, S., S. Tsutaki, D. Sakakibara and I. Asaji
    • Organizer
      Workshop on the Dynamics and Mass Budget of Arctic Glaciers & IASC Network on Arctic Glaciology Annual Meeting
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] On the possibility of a long subglacial river under the North Greenland ice sheet2020

    • Author(s)
      Chambers, C., R. Greve, B. Altena and P.-M. Lefeuvre
    • Organizer
      Sixth International Symposium on Arctic Research (ISAR-6 online meeting)
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] ISMIP6 future projections for the Greenland ice sheet with the models SICOPOLIS and ISSM2020

    • Author(s)
      Rueckamp, M., R. Greve, C. Chambers, R. Calov and A. Humbert
    • Organizer
      Sixth International Symposium on Arctic Research (ISAR-6 online meeting)
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Introduction: Cryosphere and climate interactions from past to future2019

    • Author(s)
      Abe-Ouchi, A.
    • Organizer
      EGU General Assembly
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Comparative simulations of the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet under simplified Paris Agreement scenarios with the models SICOPOLIS and ISSM2019

    • Author(s)
      Rueckamp, M., R. Greve, and A. Humbert
    • Organizer
      EGU General Assembly
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Does full Stokes matter in simulating ice sheet flow?2019

    • Author(s)
      Wester, L., M. Rueckamp, R. Greve, E. Baensch and A. Humbert
    • Organizer
      EGU General Assembly
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] An investigation into a potential long subglacial river beneath the Greenland ice sheet using SICOPOLIS simulations2019

    • Author(s)
      Chambers, C., R. Greve, B. Altena and P.-M. Lefeuvre
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2019年大会
  • [Presentation] History and Japanese contribution to the International Association of Cryospheric Sciences IACS2019

    • Author(s)
      Greve, R.
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2019年大会
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Optimizing basal sliding in spin-up simulations of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets with the model SICOPOLIS2019

    • Author(s)
      Greve, R., C. Chambers, T. Obase, F. Saito, S. Tsutaki and A. Abe-Ouchi
    • Organizer
      IUGG General Assembly
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] On the possibility of a long subglacial river under the north Greenland ice sheet2019

    • Author(s)
      Chambers, C., R. Greve, B. Altena and P.-M. Lefeuvre
    • Organizer
      日本雪氷学会・雪氷研究大会
  • [Presentation] ISMIP6 future projections for Greenland and Antarctica with the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS2019

    • Author(s)
      Greve, R., C. Chambers, R. Calov, T. Obase, F. Saito, S. Tsutaki and A. Abe-Ouchi
    • Organizer
      日本雪氷学会・雪氷研究大会
  • [Presentation] On the possibility of a long subglacial river under the north Greenland ice sheet2019

    • Author(s)
      Chambers, C., R. Greve, B. Altena and P.-M. Lefeuvre
    • Organizer
      Tenth Symposium on Polar Science, National Institute of Polar Research
  • [Presentation] ISMIP6 future projections for Greenland and Antarctica with the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS2019

    • Author(s)
      Greve, R., C. Chambers, R. Calov, T. Obase, F. Saito, S. Tsutaki and A. Abe-Ouchi
    • Organizer
      Tenth Symposium on Polar Science, National Institute of Polar Research
  • [Presentation] On the possibility of a long subglacial river under the north Greenland ice sheet2019

    • Author(s)
      Chambers, C., R. Greve, B. Altena and P.-M. Lefeuvre
    • Organizer
      AGU Fall Meeting
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] ISMIP6 future projections for Greenland and Antarctica with the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS2019

    • Author(s)
      Greve, R., C. Chambers, R. Calov, T. Obase, F. Saito, S. Tsutaki and A. Abe-Ouchi
    • Organizer
      AGU Fall Meeting
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Remarks] Ralf Greve's homepage

    • URL

      http://wwwice.lowtem.hokudai.ac.jp/~greve/

  • [Remarks] Project homepage

    • URL

      http://wwwice.lowtem.hokudai.ac.jp/~greve/progris/

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Published: 2021-01-27  

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