2018 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Evaluation and Countermeasures of Preventable Death due to Earthquake
| Project/Area Number |
16H03141
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Natural disaster / Disaster prevention science
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| Research Institution | Hokkaido University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
中嶋 唯貴 北海道大学, 工学研究院, 助教 (60557841)
和藤 幸弘 金沢医科大学, 医学部, 教授 (90211680)
田守 伸一郎 信州大学, 学術研究院工学系, 教授 (40179916)
戸松 誠 地方独立行政法人北海道立総合研究機構, 建築研究本部北方建築総合研究所, 研究主幹 (50462338)
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| Research Collaborator |
ITO yoshinori
TAKAHASHI haruka
MATSUMOTO masamu
MURAGUCHI saya
SHINODA akane
TSUNODA satoaki
NISHIKAYAMA junichiro
TANIGAWA mai
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| Project Period (FY) |
2016-04-01 – 2019-03-31
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| Keywords | プリベンタブルデス / 人的被害 / 個別要素法 / 多発外傷性重症度指標 / 余命時間 / 救出救命活動 / 建物被害 / 室内被害 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
The target covered in this study is the preventable death, that means 'delayed death' even those who were trapped and alive in damaged building immediately after earthquakes. In order to prevent the preventable death, we first proposed a model for estimating the probability of survivor's injury shown in Injury Severity Score (ISS). And to verify our causal model, we simulated wooden house collapse using 3-dimentional Discrete Element Method. As a result of this, it was found that a relatively large number of safety zones even in total collapsed buildings are scattered unevenly and temporally. By applying the pseudo-ISS, the actual lethality ratio observed in destroyed buildings was possible to be simulated in this Model. Furthermore, for estimating the limit time to transport the rescued people to hospital, the relationship between the remaining survival time and the ISS is functionalized, and it was clarified that the victims with ISS of 41 to 75 should promptly convey to hospitals.
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| Free Research Field |
地震防災計画学
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
本提案手法により対策の効果評価が可能となったことである。対策に必要な情報は、どのような被災プロセスを経て死に至るのか、そして負傷の場合はどの程度の負傷（死に至るまでの猶予時間はどの程度なのか）を被った被災者が、どの場所で（どの程度の被災建物内で）トラップされているのか、そのような現場再現に基づく被災者の状態情報である。本研究は、現状の人的被害推定手法を抜本的に改めるべきであるとの強い認識の下に、災害医学で標準に用いられている重症者指標ISS に従い、その発生分布を推定することにより、種々の対策の効果評価が可能となった。
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