The development of the web systems of small area population projections for Japan, USA, Australia, and Taiwan: a comparative study on those projections

2019 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 16H03525
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Human geography
• Research Institution: Aoyama Gakuin University
• Principal Investigator: Inoue Takashi 青山学院大学, 経済学部, 教授 (10211749)
• Project Period (FY): 2016-04-01 – 2020-03-31
• Keywords: 将来人口推計 / 小地域 / GIS / ウェブマッピング

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Prior to this study, the author first performed small-area, long-term, and nationwide population projections by 5-year age group and sex, and using their results, released "The Web System of Small Area Population Projections for the Whole Japan" (ver. 1.0) in 2016. This study conducted small area population projections for US, Australia, and Taiwan on the basis of several techniques obtained through projections for Japan, and tried to carry out their international comparison. The author had the results of the comparison fed back to projections for Japan, and released ver. 3.0 of the above system, which provides more accurate data, using the latest census population statistics. The author has released web mapping systems of small area population projections for the State of Washington, and Taiwan as well.

Free Research Field

地域人口論

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

研究代表者は，日本を対象とする小地域別将来人口推計の過程で得られた技法に基づいて，米国，オーストラリア，台湾を対象とする推計とそれらの国際比較を試みた。その結果，小地域別将来人口推計を実施する際には国や地域によって固有の課題があることがわかった。これらの知見は，日本の推計結果を更新する際にフィードバックできたほか，さらに別の国の推計においても大いに資すると考えられ，学術的価値が高いと考える。また，研究代表者は本研究で得られた推計結果をウェブ上で公開しており，それらの情報が各国において教育，医療，福祉，インフラ，防災等の種々の地域計画を策定する上で役立つことが期待され，社会的意義も大きい。