Do Global Value Chains Enlarge the Economic Effects of the TPP? A Multi-country CGE Analysis

2019 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 16H03616
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Economic policy
• Research Institution: Osaka University
• Principal Investigator: Lee Hiro 大阪大学, 国際公共政策研究科, 名誉教授 (40283460)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 大槻 恒裕 大阪大学, 国際公共政策研究科, 教授 (40397633) ; 板倉 健 名古屋市立大学, 大学院経済学研究科, 教授 (90405217)
• Project Period (FY): 2016-04-01 – 2019-03-31
• Keywords: グローバル・バリューチェーン / GVC / TPP / CPTPP / RCEP / CGEモデル

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The objectives of this research are twofold. First, we estimate the cost of U.S. withdrawal from the TPP. Second, we construct a dynamic CGE model that incorporates global value chains (GVCs), quantify the welfare and sectoral output effects of the the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for TPP (CPTPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), and compare the results with those obtained from a conventional dynamic CGE model. The results suggest that the United States would lose an opportunity to gain about $200 billion in its real GDP by 2035 when it never becomes a member of the TPP/CPTPP. When the GVC structure is added to a dynamic CGE model, the magnitudes of changes in sectoral output under the CPTPP and RCEP are projected to become considerably greater in a number of industries. By contrast, the welfare effects are relatively similar between the models with and without the GVC structure.

Free Research Field

経済政策

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

近年、国際貿易の約半分はグローバル・バリューチェーン（ＧＶＣ）を通じて行われ、製品が組み立てられて取引される前に、多くの部品がいくつかの国境を越えている。ＧＶＣ構造を組み込んだ動学的ＣＧＥモデルを構築することにより、ＴＰＰ／ＣＰＴＰＰなどのメガＦＴＡの影響をより正確に推定することができる。