2020 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
macroeconomic analysis of the monetary policy normalization in the context of the social-economic factors; historical, theoretical, and empirical investigation
| Project/Area Number |
16H03618
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Economic policy
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| Research Institution | Kansai University (2019-2020)
Kobe University (2016-2018) |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
竹田 陽介 上智大学, 経済学部, 教授 (20266068)
海野 晋悟 香川大学, 経済学部, 准教授 (20724610)
英 邦広 関西大学, 商学部, 教授 (40547949)
井田 大輔 桃山学院大学, 経済学部, 教授 (50609906)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2016-04-01 – 2021-03-31
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| Keywords | 金融政策 / 社会経済的要因 / 自然利子率 / インフレ期待 / 所得分配 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
In the advanced economies, declining natural interest rates and the low inflation rates have been the common long-run trends so that the zero interest rates are no longer exceptions. Unconventional monetary policies like quantitative easing and forward guidance are implemented frequently and we examined their effectiveness and related issues based on the US and the Japanese historical experiences.
We focused on the situation where two economies implement unconventional monetary policies simultaneously and analyzed theoretically and empirically the spillover effects between them. We examined the influences of unconventional monetary policy on the income distribution under the trend of worsening inequality.
We hypothesized the possibility that the long-run trends in socio-economic factors could contribute to the low and stable inflation expectation. We examined it through analyzing the results of the two large-scale surveys, which we conducted before and during the Covid-19 pandemic.
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| Free Research Field |
金融政策 アメリカ経済
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
非伝統的金融政策を各国が同時に実施するようになり、相互作用の分析が重要性を増している。フォワードガイダンスについて大国間の相互作用を初めて理論分析し、量的緩和について日米２国モデルに初めての時変パラメーターの実証分析を適用し、顕著な相互波及効果を確認した。
非伝統的金融政策の所得分配への効果には社会的関心が高いが、日本の集計データで検討する限り、社会階層毎に異質な効果はあるものの、所得不平等を高める効果は顕著ではなかった。
社会経済的要因の中では年齢階層だけでなく相対的な公平感や満足度などがインフレ期待に影響している可能性が発見できており、金融政策の効果を左右しかねないことが判明しつつある。
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